Assessing progress towards disaster risk reduction within the context of the Hyogo Framework
Dialogue:
Topic1: Understanding how to measure progress in disaster risk reduction
Topic 2: Implementation and application of indicators
 
 
International Strategy
for Disaster Reduction
 
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)
 
 
Technical support by
 
 
 
 
 
Topic 3
Procedures for Reviewing National Progress
4 - 10 October
Summary of Topic 3
 

The purpose of this third topic is to consider and develop procedures for reviewing national progress. Contributors can make suggestions on how to develop schedules and procedures for reviewing national progress the Hyogo Framework through the use of indicators.

This is a step beyond the development of indicators, tools and the attribution of responsibility for evaluating progress towards DRR.

However, in doing this we would like participants to consider what has gone before in the dialogue and the summaries of topics 1 and 2 will provide background for this reflection. In Topic 1 we looked at the indicators themselves. In Topic2 we considered who should eb accountable for implementing the evaluation and using the indicators.

In this dialogue we have moved progressively from the detailed to the more strategic and in topic 3 we want to discuss strategic processes for implementation and evaluation.

Indicators may be useful at international levels but any transposition of data from national level, or any comparison of individual countries, will be a sensitive and complex task which will need to take account of the starting point, priorities, resources and risks faced of each nation and their communities. The procedures for applying indicators will therefore be as important in some ways as the indicators themselves.

Any development and application of indicators will primarily be a matter for national governments themselves although any use of indicators will need to take account of local circumstances and conditions.

We want to re-affirm that a tangible and direct outcome of this dialogue will be a guidance document which will suggest tools that may be used to monitor progress towards the Hyogo Framework and particularly the 5 priority areas, which are to:

  1. Ensure that disaster risk reduction is a national and a local priority with a strong institutional basis for implementation
  2. Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning
  3. Use knowledge, innovation and education to build a culture of safety and resilience at all levels
  4. Reduce the underlying risk
  5. Strengthen disaster preparedness for effective response at all levels

The tools that are derived from this dialogue and which may be incorporated into the guidelines may include the following:

  • Checklists
  • Principles of assessment,
  • Strategies for monitoring and evaluation,
  • Setting targets and goals (progressive and final desired results)
  • Means of identifying and acquiring cost effectively data and,
  • Methods for developing and applying the above.

And we ask the participants to also address the issue of tools and their appropriateness in the third topic.


For discussion and feedback:

  1. What procedures and strategies are appropriate to implementing indicators and assessing progress?
  2. What form should guidelines on monitoring disaster risk reduction take and what content should they have?
  3. Should there be regional or global oversight of progress in Disaster Risk Reduction?

We are considering a fourth element to this dialogue where participants will be invited to briefly comment on the key documents and how these may be used to create and structure a monitoring process and we will advise you of this later.

 
Dialogue

11.10.05 Luis Mauricio Pinet Peralta, Mexico
11.10.05 Omar D. Cardona, Colombia
11.10.05 Alessandro Lugari, Italy
11.10.05 Patricia Ramarojaona, Madagascar
11.10.05 Philip Buckle and Graham Marsh, Moderators
10.10.05 Enoch Harun Opuka, Mozambique
10.10.05 Gia Gaspard Taylor, Trinidad and Tobago
10.10.05 Gia Gaspard Taylor, Trinidad and Tobago
10.10.05 Mlenge Fanuel Mgendi, Tanzania
10.10.05 Pr. TELLAL R., Morocco
10.10.05 Peter Collins, France
07.10.05 Elena Polanco de Bonilla, El Salvador
07.10.05 Christopher Effgen, United States of America
06.10.05 Tomukum Chia, Cameroon
06.10.05 Jim Cory, United States of America
04.10.05 Christopher Effgen, Anchorage, AK

03.10.05 Philip Buckle and Graham Marsh, Moderators


 

11.10.05 Luis Mauricio Pinet Peralta, Mexico

Colleagues,

One way in which countries can develop and review national progress could be through a standardized program to design and evaluate different types of exercises (drills/tabletops/functional/etc). Even though exercises, as part of the emergency management component of a risk management framework are not a structural part of the identification of risks, they can serve as a means to determine whether certain indicators (as discussed in topics 1 and 1) are being achieved. Such is the case with compliance with codes and regulations, emergency services capability (including surge capability), housing needs, enrivonmental sustainability, social acceptability (not included but important nevertheless) and medical services use, among others.

In Maryland, we have found out that jurisdictions had been planning and carrying out exercises that were not meeting certain standards (as those specified in the Homeland Security Exercise and Evaluation Program), that the deficiencies of their systems were not being addressed realistically and, in some cases, needs were being ignored or not considered as seriously as they should. In some of these exercises, highly vulnerable populations were included in the emergency operations plans, but were not being actively included in the exercises themselves. This meant that the needs were not being heard (vulnerable groups were not sharing their views with those agencies responsible for disaster services provision, their needs were not being addressed in the emergnecy operations plans and disaster services were not "aware" of them).
These scenarios represent opportunities for disaster preparedness and response, but also for identifying risks and vulnerabilities not considered before (for whatever reasons) and integrating them into the overal risk reduction framework in much more inclusive way. We can try to reduce morbidity and mortality by ensuring emergency services will be able to respond, rescue and provide emergency treatment; we can also apply the information obtained to identify communities that will not be able to access these services due to social, economic or even physical barriers that are more appropriate for a risk reduction approach rather than a preparedness approach.

I recognize that this has limited opportunities in many other circumstances; nevertheless, we will not have a single way to provide such revision at any level. Along with ensuring that communities are participating in an inclusive way in any and all of the exercises, evaluation of any type of exercise must also be done appropriately to ensure that the resources invested in these activities are not being wasted. Emergency exercises that are not planned or evaluated appropriately will only increase the risks that were supposed to be addressed.
Regards,

Luis Mauricio Pinet Peralta, M.Sc., EMT-P
Emergency & Disaster Health Services Specialist
Mexico


11.10.05 Omar D. Cardona, Colombia


Dear collegues,

In order to conceive a model of indicators for risk and risk management, we need, in general, to first reflect on the concept and utility of indicators as such. This requires an epistemological critique and an analysis of their appropriateness in terms of the dimensioning of risk and management options. This comprises the relationship between knowledge and policy definition and this relationship must be as solid as possible.

The usefulnes of indicator depends on how they are employ. The way in which indicators are used to produce a diagnosis has various implications. The first relates to the structuring of the theoretical model. The second refers to the way risk management objectives and goals are decided on. This aspect is important given that it is preferable to promote an understanding of reality not in strict terms of the ends to be pursued, but, rather, in terms of the identification of a range of possibilities, information on which is critical to organize and orientate the praxis of effective intervention. History is seen as a movement in the structure of reality and in the genesis of social profiles, rather than as a description of its morphology. This means that we need a risk diagnosis that, as far as possible, permits decision-making, recognizing the double dimension that risk represents: a given situation and a possible future. Recognition of this double dimension using indicators allows us to reflect on the potentialities present in a given situation. Knowledge of this offers a basis for organizing effective intervention through risk management. This is the way to use risk assessment to identify (the lack of) risk management, but due to many reasons we (IDB-IDEA project) believed it is necessary to have directly indicators to evaluate risk management performance and not only risk indicators to have an indirect estimator of risk management.

Result indicators must be used with care where reality is conceived as a process with transitory properties that are not necessarily reflected by the indicator. This does not signify that result indicators should be thrown out. Rather, we need to anticipate their uncritical and ingenuous use. This is apparently the case today with diverse methods proposed for the estimation of risk and vulnerability at different spatial scales. The indicatum or reality comprises a series of processes that need to be reconstructed. We are dealing with risk or risk factors (hazard and vulnerability), which in themselves may be complex and composed realities. There are different types of hazard and many dimensions of vulnerability. Moreover, vulnerability is conditioned by the type of hazard. This makes the reconstruction of reality and possibility, referred to here as risk and risk management, more complex.

A number of questions may be useful in guiding the design of a model or system of risk and risk management indicators. In the design of risk indicators a series of aspects must be taken into account, such as the character or type of evaluation, the objectives, approach, and methodology, the availability of information, quality control, and the extent to which the indicator repreents reality. The port " Methodological Fundamentals on Indicators, IDB-IDEA Phase I " retrived from http://idea.unalmzl.edu.co presents a group of oriented questions to facilitate the formulation of a model of indicators for the relative measurement of risk and risk management.

The quality attributes of a model are represented by its "applicability", "transparency", "presentation" and "legitimacy". Respect for these attributes determines the scientific pedigree of a particular technique. Applicability refers to the way a model is adjusted to the evaluation problem at hand, to its reach and comprehensiveness and the accessibility, aptitude and level of confidence of the information required. Transparency is related to the way the problem is structured, facility of use, flexibility and adaptability and to the level of intelligibility and comprehensiveness of the algorithm or model. Presentation relates to the transformation of the information, visualization and understanding of the results. Finally, legitimacy is linked to the role of the analyst, control, comparison, the possibility of verification and acceptance and consensus on the part of the evaluators and decision makers. This type of characteristics only can obtain if a team of experts develop the model of indicators. Indeed, one conference like this one only can give some general ideas to develop a model o system of indicators for risk management.

In our case, the central feature or objective of the "IDB-IDEA Programme of Indicators" was to construct a model of indicators that describes comparative levels of disaster risk in different countries (subnational or urban areas) and allows the identification of the principal factors that contribute to the configuration of risk (from a holistic perpective) in each country. The system of indicators (the model) was constructed on the basis of a number of readily available and reasonably robust variables, which allow a coarse grain or low-resolution analysis of risk at a scale appropriate for national decision-making. Ideally, the risk model not only highlight the comparative levels of risk between countries, but also the factors that should be considered in order to reduce that risk. By focusing on vulnerability and risk, the indicators are multi-sectorial in scope and social in focus, looking at the relative probabilities of a society being unable to absorb the impact and recover from a given range of dangerous events. The indicators, would then be used as a tool to focus attention on risk, to stimulate actions to reduce risks in disaster-prone countries and to set priorities for the allocation of development assistance. It would is ?indicative? and not attempt or pretend to be comprehensive or precise. It is useful to inform decision- takers on priority areas for action and resource allocation, but it would not replace the need for detailed risk assessments and profiles as a basis for planning at the national and sub-national levels.

For your information, attached you will find a paper thata is a summary of the system of indicators made by the IDB-IDEA Project. The outcomes (for example the discusion of experts on the methodologies of indicators), reports, information of the project over time (4 phases in two years) can be downloaded from http://idea.unalmzl.edu.co I have sent before to this dialogue other example of an especific indicator of risk management performance made by this programme and applied in twelve countries in the Americas.

- A System of Indicators for Disaster Risk Management in the Americas
OMAR D. CARDONA1
1 Instituto de Estudios Ambientales, IDEA, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Manizales
- Seismic risk evaluation for an urban centre
M. L. CARREÑO1, O. D. CARDONA2, AND A. H. BARBAT1
1Technical Universty of Catalonia, Barcelona, Spain
2Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Manizales, Colombia

Omar D. Cardona
Technical director of the IDB-IDEA programme of
Disaster risk and risk management indicators


11.10.05 Alessandro Lugari, Italy

Dear all,

I would like to say a word on Topic 3:

there's obviously a need of an independent authority making an overseeing of the progress in DDR (according in that with Mr Christopher Effgen), and my concern is that this body, as well as at a global level, should be capable to operate also at a local level, so that to unite detailed informations with an overall contextual knowledge.

Thank you and regards,
Alessandro Lugari
La Sapienza University - Rome
Italy


11.10.05 Patricia Ramarojaona, Madagascar

1- What procedures and strategies are appropriate to implementing indicators and assessing progress?

First of all I totally agree with Mlenge Mgendi (Tanzania). Some countries are becoming ?specialists? on producing papers (policies, strategy, etc.).
I think one of reasons of failur
e by trying to implement indicators is that the persons who have been involved in the concept are different from the others who implement.

Another reason is that it frequently takes too long time between the definition of indicators and the implementation itself.

I mean the approaches should no more be ?pilot? or due to exceptional actions. Thus, without needing great procedures and strategies, simple approaches can be undertaken by (1) starting to give the floor to decentralized structures (districts, region, provinces, etc.), (2) allowing those structures providing information, data and input (giving them means to do it), and (3) developing information/ communication mechanism in order to ensure that the Government is ready to priorise this issues.

2- What form should guidelines on monitoring disaster risk reduction take and what content should they have?

The elaboration of guidelines ought to involve multidisciplinary actors: social, economic, historic, statistic, IT, anthropologic, geographic, etc. It is up to each country. The guideline could take a form of a global monograph.


3- Should there be regional or global oversight of progress in DRR?
Absolutely!!
However it should give more opportunities for sharing and learning from each other?s rather than for copying what/how other countries deal with the issues.

Disaster and risk management should keep ?the unexpected? in mind.
Warm regards,

Patricia Ramarojaona
Administrateur de Programme Environnement/Sécurité Alimentaire/Eau/
Gestion des Risques et Catastrophes
PNUD/ Antananarivo/ MADAGASCAR
tel: 261 20 22 370 73/261 20 22 366 50
mobile: 261 33 11 811 73
www.onu.mg/pnud.html


11.10.05 Philip Buckle and Graham Marsh, Moderators

Dear Participants,

Thank you for your contributions so far. They have been very interesting and individually and combined have provide a very useful resource already for this project.

Topic 3 is about to start and will run from 4 - 10 October on the subject of Procedures for Reviewing National Progress. We encourage you to continue participating and also to prompt others also to contribute.

Kind regards
Philip Buckle and Graham Marsh
Moderators

TOPIC 3
PROCEDURES FOR REVIEWING NATIONAL PROGRESS IN DISASTER RISK REDUCTION IN THE HYOGO FRAMEWORK OF ACTION

The inherent link between disasters and development continues to be ignored in most developing countries. Unfortunately the same problems impeding development are the same ones that increase vulnerability to disasters. It is, therefore, very important that the disaster and disaster mitigation measures are mainstreamed into all development measures and policies.

Poverty has been found to be the leading cause of vulnerability. The first and greatest step in mitigating disasters is poverty alleviation. The national development policies must be geared towards poverty alleviation.

National policies must also be geared towards strengthening existing livelihood coping strategies while coming up with development initiatives that may create and diversify opportunities.

In Kenya the most devastating disasters are climate related, mainly droughts, and to some extent floods. Droughts have been so frequent in the eastern Africa region impacting greatly on the livelihood of a very big proportion of the population. Pastoralists sometimes suffer near total destruction of their livelihood. In some instances there is loss of lives. Key sectors that have been badly affected include agriculture, livestock production, wildlife management, health, and infrastructure.

Overall, the national policies should encourage research in most of these sectors. Research is very important in ensuring that adequate and relevant information is available for purposes of decision making at both the national and local levels. In agriculture, policies and actions should be geared towards the development of crop varieties that are drought tolerant if not resistant. Also in agriculture climate related disasters include pest infestation and diseases. Research policies and activities should be aimed at developing pest and disease tolerant crop varieties. Other strategies in agriculture should also include environmental conservation measures to help restore or conserve fertility hence enhancing yields. Considerations may also be made of insurance policies that guard against crop failures.

In livestock production and wildlife management, there is need for research in rangeland production activities. Rangelands form the main areas of livestock production and wildlife management. Policies and research must be aimed at increasing the abundance of more palatable species for both livestock and wildlife while guarding against biodiversity loss in order to ensure ecological balance in the rangelands. The government should also work towards improving livestock husbandry and enhancement of existing coping strategies such as pastoral associations and networks.

Health sector is very important in the disaster mitigations. Elimination or reduction of vector breeding sites is very important step towards health disaster mitigation. While minimizing vector facilitation, strengthening of health facilities is equally very important in case of disease outbreaks.. Again research is very important, particularly with regard to understanding the nature of vectors as well as understanding the existing indigenous knowledge with regard to disease cycles and people’s vulnerability.

The poor conditions of infrastructure usually hinder the movement of good and services, and the people during disasters. The national policies should be geared towards infrastructure improvement.

Other very important areas in assessing the national progress include:

  1. Establishment of early warning systems. This is critical in collection and dissemination of information regarding disasters. There is need to create functional institutions that will be responsible for collecting, processing, packaging and disseminating early warning information. In Kenya disaster management is a jurisdiction of a committee rather than a technical institution.
  2. Institutional arrangement is critical. As suggested above, there is need to for an institution that will be responsible for disasters. Such an institution must work in close collaboration with other technical institutions such as the Kenya Meteorological Department and several other national and international technical institutions. The capacity of such institutions needs to be highly strengthened. The disaster institutions must have structures at both local and national levels and must link up with international disaster institutions.
  3. Training institutions are also very important in human resource capacity building. In Kenya there has not been focus in building human capacity in disaster management. Institutions of high learning and training need to develop curricula in disaster preparedness and management.
  4. Public awareness is also very critical in disaster management. In a number of cases disasters are seen as far off occurrences hence disasters are never taken seriously until they strike. There is, therefore, great need to constantly prepare the public against such eventualities. Let disaster preparedness and management be part and parcel of education curricula at all levels of our education system.
  5. Capacity building and decision making are very important components and aspects of disaster management. This must cut across the entire community fabric. At all levels of our society people must be empowered both in terms of capacity and decision making. Remember the saying “A stitch in time saves nine”.

In summary, the following are very critical and important in disaster preparedness and management. They should form the basis of evaluating national progress in disaster management:

  1. Mainstreaming disaster management in all spheres of national development.
  2. Poverty alleviation must be part and parcel of all national development planning policies.
  3. Strengthening of existing livelihood coping strategies
  4. Strengthening of research in major sectors often affected by disasters such as agriculture, livestock production, wildlife management, health, and infrastructure.
  5. Establishing of information collection, processing and dissemination systems, particularly the early warning systems
  6. Institutional arrangement to facilitate information collection, processing and dissemination
  7. Capacity building in terms of institutions, and human resources
  8. Public awareness

 


10.10.05 Enoch Harun Opuka, Mozambique

Many countries inAfrica have had continued problems and even poverty escalated due to the way they have dealt with disaster management. Indeed countries have continued to wait for floods to come due to burst river banks during rains, they have waited for drought to come and the list continues. My take in this is that

(a) As part of the aid package (in the area of food security) and more so to developing countries in Africa, the recipient countries should show their commitment to prevent predictable annual disasters.

(b) There should be an inter-ministerial committee in developing countries to asses the extent to which risks are being dealt with. Countries like Ethiopiawhich have seen terrible famine causing extreme suffering to human beings would have lessened the effect of this suffering if such committees existed and put in place mitigating factors.

(c) The developed countries should not politicize risks. Take the example of Katrina in the USA recently. There were hints that Katrina?s destruction could have been less had President Bush been a better administrator. I find this totally unacceptable. Remove politics from disasters.

(d) In developing countries where the opposition is usually shunted out of the mainstream management of the country, a culture of working together should be developed.

Thanks
Enoch Harun Opuka
Humanitarian and Development Coordinator - AfricaRegion
American Friends Service Committee
58 Bairro Josina Machel
Manica
Mozambique
Tel: +258.251.62187
Fax and direct line +258.251.62480
Cell: +258.82.5099860


10.10.05 Gia Gaspard Taylor, Trinidad and Tobago

We are in full support of ideas expressed here, see what we are doing attached, without funds but it is urgently needed

- Features: Local youth a winner in international web competition
- iEARNTnT Newsletter 1
- iEARNTnT Newsletter 2

Gia Gaspard Taylor
National Coordinator
International Education and Resource Network, Trinidad and Tobago
1 868 622 7731 Ph.
Fax: 1 868 622 6816


10.10.05 Gia Gaspard Taylor, Trinidad and Tobago

We are in full support of the elements reffered to here and in fact began on such a process using the schools and community youth groups to learn and share information to adults we are also using games to get the messages accross.

And welcome any sugestions you may have to offer

Gia Gaspard Taylor
National Coordinator
International Education and Resource Network, Trinidad and Tobago
1 868 622 7731 Ph.
Fax: 1 868 622 6816


10.10.05 Mlenge Fanuel Mgendi, Tanzania

Dear Moderators,

What procedures and strategies are appropriate to implementing indicators and assessing progress?
* Some less developed countries are increasingly becoming good on producing national paperworks (policies, strategy papers, plans) that are not implemented at all. To assess progress there need to be more than just for example a checklist to see whether a government has Disaster Reduction in its Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper, but whether it (also) implements whatever it has in national papers.

What form should guidelines on monitoring disaster risk reduction take and what content should they have?
* The guidelines can include checklists that gauges the country's progress against the indicators suggested in previous topics.


Should there be regional or global oversight of progress in Disaster Risk Reduction?
*'It's advisable to gauge how your health improves, not by only comparing colleagues with similar bad health, but by comparing it with even those who are healthy', so says the old and wise. If we only compare countries within a region, it may happen that we do so in a region where ALL countries are not doing that much progress, but relative to each other a country could be seen better off, giving false sense of security. It is better that we do it globally.

Kind regards,

Mlenge Fanuel Mgendi
Manager, Disaster Management Training Centre (DMTC)
University College of Lands and Architectural Studies (UCLAS)
P.o. Box 35176, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania,
East Africa
Fax: +255 22 2771590 / +255 22 2775391
Mobile: +255 744 372902


10.10.05 Pr. TELLAL R., Morocco

Above all, prayer to excuse my middle English. My intervention consists on the one hand in answering for a global way to the proposed themes especially the theme 3 and on the other hand to propose some instructions for capable to help to minimize the impacts of the disasters. The types of disasters are numerous but me I address to the natural disasters.
Three points will be treated in this intervention.

1 / Needs of detailed studies and precise statistics:
  a / Necessity of census of all cases of possible risks.
  b / Necessity of Study every case of risk:
    - To make take out again the major impact of the risk (through the survey many cases).
      * on the population
      * on the infrastructure
        etc.....
    - To make come out again through the analysis of every case:
The reasons of the disasters, that is to say the failings in the system. As examples of failings one mentions:
      * Population too much exposed to the risks
      * Absence or lack of application of regulation for the construction.
      * Lack of shelters in case of disasters.
      * Lack of suitable paths for the flight.
      * Lack of infrastructure for the struggle against fire.
      * Lack of struggle means against the asphyxiating gases etc...
      * To make come out again through the survey of concrete cases, the positive points that contribute to minimize the damages caused by the disasters at the warned nations and to take them like example.
  c / THE UNO by the slant of one of its institutions, can count the precautions permitting to reduce to the maximum the impact of the disasters and to impose by one its programs to all states members the application of these precautions at home.
(Necessity of formation of experts évaluateurs of damages and failings).
2 / sensitization:
The sensitization of the populations to the disasters made defect currently in many countries otherwise all. The necessity of formation of animators in this sense could only contribute to warn the population against the risks.
    - The day of the first cares and first interventions in case of disasters (disasters) remains import. Morocco celebrated this day of the 27/09/05 under the sign of: Day of education to the first cares in case of disasters. Only the necessity of intervention of animators by the schoolchildren is appropriate.
    - Necessity of organization of fairs for the presentations of models of infrastructures etc... necessary to protect of the disasters with sensitization of the public and authorities.
3 / solidarity:
    - The UNO must work to reinforce solidarity between the countries (under the aegis of the UNO) and this by the creation of a bottom special disaster. In this case, it's necesserly to classify the disasters on a scale given to value better and quickly the degree of disaster (the information can be rushed there by experts just after the disaster) and therefore to value the need of help to grant to the damaged populations.
    - The UNO must encourage the associations of solidarity that remain an asset in the first interventions in case of disaster.

Pr. TELLAL R. Morocco.


10.10.05 Peter Collins, France

ICSU is not in a position to engage with this dialogue in detail. However, as I reported to the ISDR meting on 25 May we have been looking at what action ICSU could usefully take in respect of natural hazards, and a Scoping Group chaired by Gordon McBean has prepared a report. This will be discussed at the ICSU General Assembly on 19 October.

I attach a copy of the report for your information. You will understand its status is simply that of a set of recommendations and, in advance of the General Assembly discussion, it is not a statement of ICSU policy. The main recommendation is that, in the field of natural hazards, ICSU's niche lies at the intersection of science and policy and, in particular, the uses that are made of scientific knowledge concerning natural hazards.

Dr Peter Collins
ICSU
51 Bd de Montmorency
75016 Paris
+33 (0)1 45 25 06 01


07.10.05 Elena Polanco de Bonilla, El Salvador

Greetings to all. There are three elements that can give the idea us if the different aspects to take care of the disasters in the countries are really progress signs:

a)Organization quick and effective before the impact
b)Comunication and difusiòn adapted of basic information
c)Activation (TURN ON) quick of the different devices to take care of poblaciòn. In El Salvador, before of the disasters of the 2001, have been remarkable efforts to improve boarding integral of the poblation.

Nevertheless, one of the things that demand much work, is to convince the people who accept evacuation. Like as to supply very quickly the shelters to take care of all the refugees.
Cultural barriers and distrust of the security that can give the institutions to the homes usually are great limitations to take care of the people satisfactorily.

But in the measurement that the countries and his institutions in charge to take care of the population in case of disasters, win credibility, exercise their functions and tasks, use and distribute in form it is
transparent the resources and donations and respond to the people effectively doubtlessly who this is going to reflect in the smaller possible time in people that will be done better the indications and this is going to diminish the nùmero of deaths and vìctimas.

Best regards from El Salvador.
Dra. Elena Polanco de Bonilla.
UNIVERSIDAD
DE EL SALVADOR.


07.10.05 Christopher Effgen, United States of America

Dear Tomukum Chia and Colleagues,

Thank you for your kind words.

I am not suggesting that disaster relief or disaster planning funds be associated with the compilation of disaster risk indicators. I am suggesting that international bodies, that make development funds available, use these as factors in determining what terms to offer in making grants and loans.

Within and often outside of government, emergency managers, risk/threat planners, and advocates for sustainable development are very small fish in a big pound filled with bigger fish that have sharper teeth. If an nation or state's international development funding is tied to its mitigation activities, because an international lending agency is more likely to make funding available, or offer better terms, then our work will be easier because it will carry more wieght.

I don't think that this idea originates with me. I think that it fits the ground work that others have laid down, and I believe that it will work because it fits the problem.

The individuals that I know that are involved in emergency management in the United States tend not to take public positions because they know that they are small fish, whose continued employment is dependent upon the support of their elected representatives. Their representatives in turn depend upon the support of economic interests that often don't see the longterm value in disaster mitigation. As a result they have to be compromisers.

The scheme that I am suggesting will not solve the problem overnight. Yet, for my part I believe that we can within a hundred years or so develop cultures that are truly disaster resistent. The development of the science of risk/threat management has taught us that a single failure in a system can bring down the entire orginization that depends upon that system for its livelihood. The problem of sustainable development is one that we all face together. The failure of any nation to understand this may result in consequences that affect all of us. Today we confront the problem of avian influenza which, if not acted upon, has the potential to kill half the human population of the planet. The problem of sustainable development of every nation affects the kind of development that can take place in my county. It affects the nature of the kind of people we can and will become.

This is why our work is so important.
Christopher Effgen
United States of America
907-248-8363


06.10.05 Tomukum Chia, Cameroon

Dear all,

Personally I wish to thank Mr. Effgen Christopher for his immense contribution. We regret and sympathise for the recent disasters that occurred in the united states. Please accept our condolence.

Unfortunateny the loan and grants iniative highlighted in his proporsal cannot be feasible in our context here in africa because loan or grants are limited and in all disaster risk management it is the immediate survivals that are available for rescue and anyassistance or relief operation is for a short while only.

Again our forms of disasters do not take place in cycles as indicated.strenthening coping mechanisms and monitoring by vulnerable and disadvantaged grassroots communities is recommendable.

Regards
Tomukum Chia
Cameroon


06.10.05 Jim Cory, United States of America

Hello all,

There has been some discussion during this dialogue about mainstreaming disaster reduction and viewing it as an aspect of sustainable development efforts. As has been evidenced by recent events, unsustainable practices are often exposed and exacerbated by disasters. It makes sense then to schedule procedures to review sustainable development after disasters and to schedule procedures to review disaster reduction when sustainability is being examined. The extent of devastation caused by disasters depends in part on where the poor can afford to live. Without social structures in place to encourage wise land use, capitalism becomes the determining factor.

By examining land use and population distribution during non-disaster times, the ability of a community to rebound can be assessed. A strong, resilient social framework can provide the means to withstand disasters and to provide a foundation for development. Studying where and how the social framework is damaged or destroyed by disaster can provide information about the sustainability of the day to day development efforts.

Jim Cory
GeoTech
Madison, WI, USA


04.10.05 Christopher Effgen, Anchorage, AK

Dear Colleagues,

We have had a number of disasters recently in the United States, which have called into question our approach to risk/threat management and to Emergency Management. The objectives of this forum are timely in this respect.

In constructing a national policy, after the attack on 9-11-01, the government of the United States largely bypassed and ignored the contributions that its emergency management community had to offer. It reduced funding to the only organization that had pursued an all-hazard approach, virtually ceased all mitigation activities, and was in the process of attempting to shift responsibilities that are normally those of emergency managers out of FEMA. For the last month I have been following the disasters and the changes taking place within the emergency management community. For this reason I have not participated in the conference till this point in time.

1. What procedures and strategies are appropriate to implementing indicators and assessing progress?
- The object of having indicators that enable assessments is a common practice in the credit industry. The most appropriate and effect procedure and strategy for implementing the indicators would be their use in determining the viability of loans and grants to states and nations.

2.What form should guidelines on monitoring disaster risk reduction take and what content should they have?
- The first issue that we need to establish a baseline. The problem with a baseline is that disasters take place in cycles, and so the baseline needs to be able to accommodate itself to this fact. States, nations, and the international community need to engage in risk/threat assessments, and all hazards emergency management plans need to be established.

3. Should there be regional or global oversight of progress in Disaster Risk Reduction?
- In order for such a scheme to be viable the process would require oversight from an independent authority(ies).

Christopher Effgen
Anchorage, AK
907-248-8363


03.10.05 Philip Buckle and Graham Marsh, Moderators

Dear Participants,

Thank you for your contributions so far. They have been very interesting and individually and combined have provide a very useful resource already for this project.

Topic 3 is about to start and will run from 4 – 10 October on the subject of Procedures for Reviewing National Progress.

We encourage you to continue participating and also to prompt others also to contribute.

Kind regards

Philip Buckle and Graham Marsh
Moderators