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Topic
1 |
Understanding how to measure progress in disaster risk reduction |
12 – 22
September |
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For
discussion and feedback: |
- What linkages
are there between disaster management and wider social, economic,
environmental and political programmes? How can we delimit
the field of disaster risk reduction? Where possible provide
examples and case studies.
- How do
we measure progress where success may be demonstrated by what
has not happened, by the avoidance of death, injury, damage
and loss?
- How do we
identify and describe indicators of
- Outcomes or achievement
- Output or policy and programme activities
- Process and activity.
- How do
we take account of the disaster risk environment and context
of different countries?
- How do
we describe and how do we link and combine indicators of quantity
and quality.
- Is managed
relocation of settlements from high-risk areas a measure of
success, for example moving communities away from traditional
areas to new sites that are safer but may have less social
and historical meaning?
- How do
we take account of an evolving environment where local and
national conditions and data and hazards are themselves changing,
for example changing hazard regimes resulting from climate
change?
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Click
here for the key documents for this topic |
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Dialogue |
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29.09.05
Nibedita Shankar,
UK |
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28.05.09
Silvio Cerda H.,
Nicaragua |
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28.09.05
Paola Albrito and Praveen Pardeshi, ISDR |
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28.09.05
The ThaiTogether Team,
THAILAND |
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27.09.05
Gia Gaspard Taylor, Trinidad and Tobago |
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27.09.05
Guillaume Chantry, Viet Nam |
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27.09.05
Gia Gaspard Taylor, Trinidad and Tobago |
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27.09.05
Ricardo Zapata-Marti, Mexico |
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27.09.05
L. Ocola, Perú |
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26.09.05
The ThaiTogether Team,
Thailand |
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26.09.05
Jim Cory , United States of America |
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26.09.05
Omar G. Flores Beltetó, Guatemala |
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26.09.05
Luis Mauricio Pinet Peralta,
Mexico |
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23.09.05
Griselia Bohorquez, Venezuela |
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23.09.05
farai magombedze, Zimbabwe |
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23.09.05
Juracy Soares, Mexico |
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23.09.05
piet kurpershoek, Netherlands |
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23.09.05
Marla Petal, Turkey |
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22.09.05 Hernan L. Villagran, Chile |
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22.09.05 Ambrose Oroda, Kenya |
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22.09.05 Ricardo ZAPATA, Mexico |
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22.09.05 Gerardo Huertas, Costa Rica |
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22.09.05 Met Graciela Salaberri , Uruguay |
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22.09.05 Alekssandr Kuzmenko, Ukraine |
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21.09.05 Anton Imeson, Netherlands |
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21.09.05 Patricia Alarcon Chaires, Mexico |
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21.09.05 piet kurpershoek, Netherlands |
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21.09.05 Saroj Kumar Jha, United States of America |
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21.09.05 Luis Mauricio Pinet Peralta, Mexico |
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21.09.05 Paola Albrito , Switzerland |
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21.09.05 John Norton, France |
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20.09.05
Gerardo Huertas,
Costa Rica |
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20.09.05
Ilan Kelman,
United States of America |
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20.09.05
Mayumi Yamada, Japan |
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20.09.05
John Salter, Australia |
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19.09.05
Omar D. Cardona, Colombia |
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19.09.05
Anita Dwyer, Australia |
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19.09.05
Anna Hovhannesyan,
Yerevan, Armenia |
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19.09.05
Abdel Wahab Ahmed, Sudan |
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19.09.05
Jim Cory,
United States of America |
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19.09.05
Gerardo Huertas,
Heredia, Costa Rica |
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19.09.05
Gerardo Huertas,
Heredia, Costa Rica |
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19.09.05
Dr John Twigg, United
Kingdom |
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16.09.05
M.I.Zuberi,
Bangladesh |
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16.09.05
Luis Mauricio Pinet Peralta,
Mexico |
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16.09.05
Prof. R. Struzak,
Italy |
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16.09.05
Miranda Dandoulaki,
Italy |
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16.09.05
Wim Looijen,
Netherlands |
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16.09.05
Jianping Yan, Canada |
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16.09.05
Tanya de Corrales,
Andean region |
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15.09.05
Florence Egal, FAO/Rome |
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15.09.05
Jianping Yan, Canada |
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15.09.05
Elias Mabaso,
Zimbabwe |
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15.09.05
Grant COULTMAN-SMITH, Australia |
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15.09.05
Grant COULTMAN-SMITH, Australia |
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15.09.05
Glenn Dolcemascolo,
UNEP |
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15.09.05
Enrique Castellanos,
Cuba |
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15.09.05
M.I.Zuberi, Bangladesh |
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15.09.05
Catherine Giovas, Australia |
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15.09.05
Ibraheem Alabi Olomoda, Niamey Niger |
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15.09.05
Prasad Babu,
Bhutan |
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15.09.05
Dr. Necati Dedeoglu,
Turkey |
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15.09.05
Naomi Udom,
Nigeria |
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15.09.05 Campaign
Service center |
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15.09.05
Ilan Kelman |
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14.09.2005
Sálvano
Briceño, Contribution to the debate |
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12.09.2005
Topic 1, welcome message from the moderator |
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31.08.2005
Invitation |
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29.09.05 Nibedita
Shankar,
UK
Dear Philip,
Marsh and others,
Sorry for this late contribution. I would like to add some more additional
points (which I think has been missed out) to this debate.
1) What tasks are involved in setting priorities for
indicators and objectives?
- Socio-economic context of the place and the people; and thier exposure
to different types of risks and hazards .
Here I would like to see specifically 'differential vulnerability'
within the context of socio-economic parameters. One such 'differential
vulnearbility' would be 'gender' and I would like to see it as one
of the integrated indicators with other objectives.
And when I am saying exposure to different types of hazards and risk
I want to stick to natural hazards (because we often tend to confuse
the practitioners when we try to bring in non-natural hazards in
this domain - though I believe it is a pseudo division). Therefore
what I am trying to say disaster risk managment has to be not only
localised but also dependant on hazard types. In addition to it,
the government, (I)NGOs and others alike need to acknowledge the
importance of multiple natural hazards that are creating havoc distress
in certain countries (like India, Africa) and paticular places, which
are recurrently affected by different types of natural hazards like
(droughts, flood, cyclone and earthquake) simultaneously and consecutively.
Therefore there's a need to have differential disaster risk managment
to addres those places which are highly at risk of multiple natural
hazards.
I hope this is useful. Sorry for the late posting. Thanks.
Nibedita.
Nibedita Shankar,
Ph.D student, Department of Sociology,
University of Warwick,
UK, CV5 8DL. |
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28.05.09
Silvio Cerda H.,
Nicaragua
Dear Friends :
Sorry for coming late to the Topic 1 discussion. In the next
lines I´ll try to share with you my viewpoints about
the theme.
Having in focus that main goal of the 1 st topic discussion is the
measuring process for disasters risk reduction, we have to diference
some faces of the problematic:
- There
are necessary indicators for several levels: the ones used
by the int -l organizations that work on disaster
risk reduction
like a part of the socio economic development of the countries
they help; the national indicators needed for governments
to measure the
results of their work for the risk reduction at all levels;
but the most important are the indicators about the communitary
progress
on disaster risk reduction.
- The other
kind of indicators is related with the term we are constructing
them for, I mind, we need different
indicators to
measure the national,
sector and local progress in creating communitary disaster
reduction culture ? community resilence (long term);
indicators for mid
and short term associated to disaster impact mitigation
( ); and indicators
to measure response preparedness at all levels.
- I think
that indicators about lives and material loses do not measure
disaster risk reduction/ prevention, they
simply
measure
the disaster impact.
Best regards
Silvio Cerda H.
DVR Project - SINAPRED
Nicaragua |
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28.09.05
Paola Albrito and Praveen Pardeshi, ISDR
Dear all,
We have read with interest the comment made on the link between
disaster risk reduction and MDGs.
Disasters exert an enormous toll on development. In so doing
they pose a significant threat to prospects for achieving the
MDGs.
At the same time, efforts to attain the MDG targets can inadvertently
increase the level of disaster risk. It is important to understand
that a dilemma exists between, on one hand, efforts to achieve
the MDGs and, on the other hand, efforts to decrease the levels
of disaster
risk. The question that faces decision makers and sometimes also
places advocates of disaster reduction in disagreement with some
MDG planners is how to develop a strategy that leads to the achievement
of the MDGs without increasing the level of disaster vulnerability
or vice versa.
The
definition of "disaster risk reduction" captures
the "how" on the relation between sustainable development
(reaching the MDGs) and the disaster risk reduction: The conceptual
framework of elements considered with the possibilities to minimize
vulnerabities and disaster risks throughout a society to avoid
(prevention) or to limit (mitigation and preparedness) the adverse
impacts of hazards, within the broad context of sustainable development.
The conceptual framework referred to in the definition, to be
applied within the broad context of sustainable development, is
composed of the field of actions that corresponds to the Priorities
Areas identified in the HF.
The table attached captures a set of tradeoffs between interventions
to achieve MDGs and alternative measures to ensure that this does
not lead to accumulation of disaster risk are outlined. It therefore
suggests measures to incorporate disaster risk reduction in areas
of intervention to attain the MDGs.
The second annex "Millennium
Development Goals and indicators sensitive to disaster risk reduction"
outlines how the MDGs indicators
can be adapted to measure the extent of disaster risk reduction.
This has been done without adding new indicators but by using the
existing MDG target indicators with additional time or geographic
dimensions to make them sensitive to the question: is the progress
in attaining the MDG targets disaster resilient.
Regards
Paola Albrito and Praveen Pardeshi
International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, UN/ISDR
Tel.:++41(0)22.917 28 54, Fax:++41.(0)22.917 05 63
Websites: http://www.unisdr.org & http://www.eird.org
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28.09.05
The ThaiTogether Team,
THAILAND
I wanted to respond to some of the discussions that have been sent
out today.
Maps of at risk areas would be useful but it is what is done with
these that is important. If they are to be of any use they also need
to be accessible to local people, along with education programs that
can show their meanings. While moving the poor out of at risk areas
sounds like a good solution the reality is that in many countries
this is not going to work. It is not because of low rent that fishermen
in Thailand live near the sea, and this can be said for many other
countries. For many of the people who were affected by the tsunami,
where they live is very much a part of their identity. In fact this
has been one of the issues that has arisen in the aftermath of the
tsunami, people are going through identity crisis's. In fact in Thailand
it was the Morgen people who suffered the least loss of life, although
it is these groups who live closest to the sea. This is because of
their deep connections with the sea and also because of stories past
down through the generations of other tsunamis.
Education programs should play a key role because there is no point
in determining what risks exist in a country, what needs to be done
and who is responsible without educating the local people and including
them in the process.
I don't think that there is a blanket solution to the questions raised
as historical, political, religious and cultural contexts need to
be taken into consideration and these are going to differ in each
country.
Yes governments need to be involved in discussions such as these
but the most important thing is in linking ALL sectors together to
come up with strategies and plans. In Thailand there has been a law
for many years which says that it is illegal to build within about
200m of the shoreline. Before the tsunami everyone ignored this law.
The above mentioned identity issues had a lot to do with this.
You can not fully assess the impact of a disaster without including
the local people. The official number of houses destroyed in the
tsunami in Thailand does not necessarily include the many houses
that were not registered. The number of dead is also very complicated
to asses because there were people living in the area who come from
other provinces who were not registered. Some people came to the
area illegally. Every body could not possibly have been recovered
and most local people will say that the death toll was probably twice
what the official records say.
I agree with Dr van Niekerk in that to asses the number of dead and
the houses destroyed is to asses the impact of the disaster once
it has happened and not the risk or the reduction mechanisms and
overall preparedness.
I know that logistically it requires a lot more work but if this
discussion had been open in more languages there may have been greater
participation from community groups and government representatives. Thank
you
The ThaiTogether Team
Contact ThaiTogether
E-mail: info@thaitogether.org
On Line Forum: http://www.thaitogether.org/forum/
Yellow Pages: http://www.thaitogether.org/yellowpages/
Web Site: http://www.thaitogether.org
Field Worker's Phone:
04 053 4283 (Mimi)
Office phone: 076 322064-8 ext 107
Office Direct Line and Fax: 076 322 115
Office Mobile: 09 993 2322
IT and Web Master: 01 747 3000 (Paul)
Thai Together Office, Room 1
Baan Maksong 96/1
Moo 7 Witchitsongkram Rd
Kathu Phuket 83120
THAILAND |
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27.05.09
Gia Gaspard Taylor, Trinidad and Tobago
It is amazing to me that we do not see young people, students as
stakeholders, in todays world where both parents are working the
children are quite often alone at home, or traveling to or from school,
in the very poor and/or third world countries. Some natural disasters warnings are on television, radios, what
of the ones that come without any warning. how are we to plan,
knowing
that we have such short memories, after the season all of this
will be forgotten, except by the victims or their families.
Gia Gaspard Taylor
International
Education and Resource Network, Trinidad and Tobago
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27.09.05
Guillaume Chantry, Viet Nam
Dear all,
I would like to add a simple comment to the evaluation from the colleague
from Guatemala.
One important indicator should be the (administrative) level & (political)
power of the chief of the public organisation / committee in
charge of disaster management : this measures well the commitment
of the
country with the question of disasters... Guillaume Chantry
DWF
Prevent typhoon damages to housing, central Viet Nam
Hue, Viet Nam |
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27.09.05
Gia Gaspard Taylor, Trinidad and Tobago
We in this part of the world the Caribbean are very concern about
the talk of tsunami, we know that these islands cannot survive even
a short 10 minutes thunderstorm, therefore we must learn from you.
The reason we (we are an NGO) join this debate, to learn and to share
the lessons learned with others,students, youth, perhaps one of the
lessons here maybe to know when to stop giving or what to give, sometimes
more than food and shelter or money, maybe what's needed.
Just a thought!
Gia Gaspard Taylor
International Education and Resource Network, Trinidad and Tobago
http://www.iearntandt.interconnection.org |
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27.09.05
Ricardo Zapata-Marti, Mexico
1. There are numerous isolated efforts to measure progress and
develop indicators, thus there is a need to discuss an adopt standard
criteria and definitions.
2. Recent response and evidence of inadequater disaster risk management
in industrialized societies is evidence that, on the one hand,
events are having larger unexpected impacts (leading to the need
for adaptation in the face of climate change for example) or cost
benefit analysis have not been included in investment-profit calculations
either by the State or by private investors. Thus there is a need
to make the necessary legal and structural modifications for risk
to be appropriated and, hence, not externalized to the rest of
society as evidence shows is very much the case.
3. Debate must move forward to the analysis of how risk is integrated
in economic and social vulnerability. The fact that risk reduction
and disaster response are largely perceived as a public good associated
with the State's responsibility for national and citizen's security,
and that security has lately been seen under the narrow scope of
violence and terrorism has led to the lack of investment by individuals,
communities and entrepreneurs in risk management, trusting that
any damage costs or reconstruction will be in part be offset by
goverment aid and support.
Ricardo Zapata-Marti
UN-ECLAC
Focal Point on Disaste Evaluation
Mexico
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27.09.05
L. Ocola,
Perú
1. What linkages are there between disaster management and wider
social, economic, environmental and political programs? How can we
delimit the field of disaster risk reduction?
i. Disaster management comes into play when risk and/or disaster
management agencies fail to mitigate potential risks, to the degree
of a society’s or community’s acceptable risk level,
upon the impact on a society or community and/or their works and
infrastructure of a hazardous phenomena (environment) or dangerous
technological events (social outcomes). A lack or deficient knowledge
of the physical phenomena can result in a wrong hazard assessment,
which, in turn, could lead to a faulty vulnerability assessment.
ii. A disaster management is closely related to the degree and
reliability on the physical phenomena hazard assessment, the respective
vulnerability evaluation of the exposed livelihood systems to the
impact of the hazardous phenomena, and to the capacity and resilience
of the impacted society or community.
iii. Poverty, environmental condition changes, social organization
and response to the impact are among the most important factors
of a disaster management policy. They are closely related to the
political, social and economical governmental programs.
iv. An effective disaster management depends on the degree of
knowledge of the environmental phenomena for a reliable hazard
management. If the environmental hazardous phenomena are not known
and documented, hardly can be expected any success of a potential
disaster management program. Unfortunately, governments and society
give little attention to this aspect on disaster risk reduction.
2. How to measure progress where success may be demonstrated by
what has not happened?
Hazardous phenomena are characterized by their magnitude or intensity,
location, frequency and probability of recurrence. We could measure
progress on disaster risk reduction comparing the outcome of disasters
caused by phenomena of similar magnitude, recurrence and physical
environment. Outcomes such as: The degree of losses caused by earthquakes,
volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, flooding, hurricanes, surface geologic
phenomena (landslides, lahars, avalanches), etc. should diminish,
if a disaster management program and the delimitation of tasks
of the risk assessment factors and risk mitigation management are
properly done.
Civil Defense of Peru has published statistical data on the number
of deaths, injuries, damaged infrastructure, destroyed houses,
general assessment of the economic impact, etc. caused by earthquakes,
maremotos, flooding, strong surface winds, surface geologic phenomena
(landslides, lahars, avalanches, torrential floods, among other
phenomena), etc., for more than ten years.
3. How to identify and describe indicators:
Identification and description of impact indicators of hazardous
natural phenomena and dangerous technological events require
to have a database of the impacts on the society or community,
on
their works and infrastructure, as well as, information and statistics
on the national gross product, and statistics on communities’ works,
infrastructure, population, etc. Usually this information is
obtained from national census publications.
Based on national census information and the impact assessment
of a destructive natural phenomena or technological events, individual
or combined indices for hazards, vulnerabilities, capacities, and
disasters can be computed for different time spans and analyze
their temporal variation.
L. Ocola
Research Scientist
Instituto Geofísico del Perú
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26.09.05
The ThaiTogether Team,
THAILAND
Unfortunately I did not have time to contribute to the first topic
on time so I will just write a few of my thoughts and perhaps you
could see where they fit it.
The organisation that
I am working with was set up to try to facilitate communication
and coordination amongst those involved in the tsunami
relief efforts in Thailand. Because of several issues our work has mostly
cantered around NGOs and have had little contact with government
sectors. As such we do not work directly with local people or the
victims but in working with many organisations that do we have
gained a degree of knowledge into the big picture of the issues,
problems and progresses made in Thailand.
Though material, financial and infrastructure loses have been
significant, the psychological and social effects may last for
many years to come.
Thailand was a fairly unique situation in the aftermath of the
tsunami for several reasons. The areas that were hit by the tsunami
were predominantly tourist hot spots. For this reason many foreigners
were either already in the area when the tsunami hit or had visited
the areas before and felt compelled to help. This has lead to a
situation were there are possibly too many organisations and individuals
giving aid and assistance.
Community is very important
in Thai culture but the post tsunami relief has created a situation
where families and individuals are
competing and fighting with each other over aid. "Affected" families
and particularly children are highlighted and given a lot of special
treatment and material compensations. This not only builds jealousies amongst those who
were not affected it also ostracises those who were from the rest
of the community. Temporary camps were build without properly taking
into account the length of time they would be needed, the sanitation
and drainage needs and the privacy needs of the people living there.
Girls do not feel safe to use bathroom facilities at night and
with the cramped conditions it is felt that children and women
are at greater risk.
Only time will tell
how these communities recover their societal and cultural heritages.
The long term effects of how the disaster
is responded to and the relief work that follows has the potential to cause
more damage than the disaster itself. This needs to be taken into
consideration for the future. The media should also have a responsibility
in this because the difference of the angles of their stories will
have an effect on the people who want to help and how they chose
to help.
In the context of this
situation it is very difficult to say who should be responsible
for assessments of the impacts of a disaster,
and how it is responded to. This is something which needs to be very carefully
managed and coordinated. The more people doing assessments the
more stressful this is for the local people who were affected by
the disaster. Any assessments need to be consistent, including
consistency in the individuals who carry out any assessments. This
not only benefits the affected people but also leads to a more
accurate assessment. In many cases local people have been lying
to those doing case studies or coming to help because they know
that there will be different people next week or next month. Governments
have a tendency not to trust NGOs, and sometimes also the UN agencies.
NGOs have a tendency not to trust the government or UN agencies.
NGOs can also become "territorial" in their fields and
not trust or want to share with other NGOs. Local people should
also be empowered in this process. Rather than being assessed by
someone else they should be involved in the assessment process.
These issues need to be taken into consideration before thinking
about who should be responsible for doing any assessments.
There have been several tsunami warnings issued since Dec 26th
which is adding further stress to the people. There are some projects
being developed and implemented to teach people about tsunamis
and emergency response and this will do a lot to put people minds
at ease. However not enough is being done about the tsunami warning
system and this is the responsibility of the government. Whenever
there is a waring people find out about it fairly quickly and start
evacuating. In the news the successes are attributed to the tsunami
warning system and government warnings. This is not the real picture.
What generally happens is that once people hear about the waring
they then phone or text message everyone that they know who could
be in the area. This then has a snow ball effect. While this has
proven to be quite successful the problem is that all the phone
lines get jammed and people start giving information that may not
be true, it is a bit like chinese wispers. Warnings need to be
issued immediately. A simple solution would be if all mobile phone
service providers were to give a free service then a text message
could be sent out to every mobile phone in both the Thai and English,
whenever there is the threat of a natural disaster, and just a
few short and immportant points. Also include in the txt a web
address or other source where more information can be found if
needed.
I know that I did not really stick to the topic but I hope that
there was some useful information and suggestions.
Thank you
The ThaiTogether Team
Contact ThaiTogether
E-mail: info@thaitogether.org
On Line Forum: http://www.thaitogether.org/forum/
Yellow Pages: http://www.thaitogether.org/yellowpages/
Web Site: http://www.thaitogether.org
Field Worker's Phone:
04 053 4283 (Mimi)
Office phone:
076 322064-8 ext 107
Office Direct Line and Fax:
076 322 115
Office Mobile:
09 993 2322
IT and Web Master:
01 747 3000 (Paul)
Thai Together Office,
Room 1
Baan Maksong 96/1
Moo 7 Witchitsongkram Rd
Kathu Phuket 83120
THAILAND |
|
26.09.05
Jim Cory ,
United States of America
Hello all,
The topic question on indicators is framed in terms of assessing
the aftermath. This is necessarily part of the equation, for only
recently have we been able to collect detailed information about
natural phenomena. I would like to explore also the positive side
of the equation as mentioned by another participant.
We have the means to predict outcomes based on past behaviors and
to model scenarios based on a variety of parameters. A possible product
of this analysis would be a map of affected areas susceptability
to flooding or to drought). If we then overlay these areas (as in
a GIS) with a mapping of poverty, we could report on the number of
poor living in those areas of risk.
As evidenced by Katrina, the poor are most likely to be living in
areas that are prone to flooding. Rents and property costs may be
lower there as a result of a history of risk. If positive efforts
are made to reduce the poor in at risk areas, the loss of life and
cost of rescue would be lessened. The more well to do populace is
able to afford the higher cost of insurance in those areas, thus
reducing the public cost of rebuilding. They are also more mobile
and able to evacuate to alternative locales.
A map showing fewer poor in at risk areas would be a positive indication
of risk reduction. The question remains how to reduce the number
of poor in areas that are affordable to them as a result of economic
factors related to risk. This effort must combine several initiatives
at all levels of government. Property taxes should be adjusted based
on the geographic distribution of risk. A portion of the taxes needs
to be placed aside in risk abatement funds.
Relief agencies should reduce designation of funds to areas that
are at risk and have risk reduction incentives in place. This is
only possible if the poor have been relocated from these areas. Higher
taxes should only be assessed on property where rebuilding or new
building occurs. The people who are displaced need to be given support
and subsidies to find housing in less at risk areas.
This is very over simplified, but I would be interested to know if
anyone sees any value in this kind of approach.
Jim Cory
Systems Analyst
eoAnalytics, Inc.
1716 Fordem Avenue
Madison, WI 53704
United States of America
tel: 608.241.7100 ext. 232
fax: 608.241.7116
www.geoanalytics.com
http://webpages.charter.net/jcory17/ |
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26.09.05
Omar G. Flores Beltetó, Guatemala
Dear colleagues:
After reading along this last week all the commentaries and
suggestions that you have contributed to this forum, the only
thing I can say
is that; for a third world country like Guatemala is rare to
find someone who is working in obtain such type of risk indicators,
so in this way I can realize that the gap between the developed
countries and developing countries is larger and increasing everyday.
Another important observation is that after checking the list
of
participants in this forum, I found that; most of the participants
are from the academy or NGO´s instead of the National Civil
Protection or Disaster Management Governmental Agencies, whom
must be the compulsory participants of this kind of events. So
the contribution
in trying to change the schemes, is zero (A good and easy to
find indicator). That?s the way things works in our countries,
being
hard to change the Political will and commitment, in improving
the disaster reduction as they are absent in this kind of events.
Omar G. Flores Beltetón
Faculty of Engineering
University of San Carlos, Guatemala
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26.09.05
Luis Mauricio Pinet Peralta,
Mexico
Juracy,
My experience here inMaryland(I am originally from Mexico City, but
happen to work in the US) is this. We have struggled very hard
to bring stakeholders to the table in matters related to emergency
preparedness for special populations, because it is not on their
radar to include them in the planning process. The approach is
the same for any emergency management process, with changes only
in strategies and initiatives depending on what specific goals,
steps and milestones you are looking for. Most of our work has
focused on getting to their planning meetings, reunions, tabletops...
any event they may have in which we can participate and learn how
our resources can best assist them; our purpose has been to offer
our technical assistance in upgrading their current plans (or even
in creating them) for emergencies, being careful not to seem as
we are there to tell them what to do, but on how we can fit in
their territory. I have been an emergency professional for many
years, and know that (at least here) turf wars are real and in
many cases they prevent great initiatives from becoming great programs.
We organized regional conferences and invited emergency managers,
law enforcement, fire and rescue, emergency medical services, public
health, public works... and individuals with disabilities (our target
population) so that they all could exchange their views and network
with us being the bridge and interfering as little as possible, although
always making sure that our goals were met (giving information for
individuals to be prepared for emergencies with disabilities included).
We also created an advisory committee and invited all those stakeholders
we thought of to be a part of it, to provide expert advice and to
share their experiences, knowledge, information, etc, and that has
worked very well.
I think that before you attempt to bring people to the table and
discuss how to reduce their risks, you could try to focus on making
them aware that they are at risk for many hazards (and focusing on
those with the highest probability in the area). Another strategy
that has worked well for us is to focus not on great floods, catastrophic
eartquakes or other incredibly devastating incidents, but on day
to day emergencies. The reason behing this is that individuals percieve
greater risks for crime, fires, road traffic injuries, lack of electricity,
gas, water (other utilities and for prolonged periods of time), etc,
than risks from earthquakes. It seems easier for them to prepare
if they feel at risk, if they experience these emergencies on a regular
basis; then you have cleared the way for building efforts in other
areas or with other hazards.
Anyway, you might consider some of these approaches and see if they
can work. I understand how difficult it is in Mexicoto build a culture
of managing by objectives instead of just managing by reaction.
Saludos,
Luis Mauricio Pinet Peralta, M.Sc., EMT-P
Emergency & Disaster Health Services Specialist
Mexico |
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23.09.05
Griselia Bohorquez, Venezuela
Good Afternoon
for all of you.
I think
is very interesting this way for meet discussion about Reduction
Risk Disaster. In Latin America have been few interest in this
topic part of Government. University are important point for
reduction risk disaster for close relation between community
and university in extension activities. Community Capacitation
can be make for students of different career: engineer, medical
students, veterinary, agricultural and others.
Now, how
measure impact this interventions have in the Community and
know if they are prepared when a disaster stroke? I think that
is very important to establish indicators that allow measure
progress in all stage.
I´m
reading the information about this subject for contribute more
in discussions.
Sorry about
mistake in this mail but English is not my language.
Griselia
Bohorquez.
Preventive Department
Universidad Centroccidental Lisandro Alvarado
Venezuela.
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23.09.05
farai magombedze, Zimbabwe
Ladies and
Gentlemen
Measuring
progress is essentially taking stock. Progress in disaster
management, therefore, has to be measured against the package
of principles, strategies and activities envisaged in the HFA
and its predecessor. In this context I suggest an inventory
approach which is qualitative in nature. A list of the ideals
a country should have in order to reduce disaster risk and
vulnerability should be drawn up. This should include ,inter
alia, scientific research institutions, highways, stockpiles
of emergency supplies and qualified disaster management personnel.
This a simple indicator every one can interpret. Indicators
of vulnerability already exist in HDI indexes. they just have
to be compiled.
farai magombedze
Zimbabwe
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23.09.05
Juracy Soares, Mexico
In my opinion,
in the third world countries, these problems are not addressed
until a disaster happens, as in Mexico City, 1985.
In Baja California
(state), there are no real emergency plans although we are
practically living over a large part of the San Andreas Fault.
What do we
need to do to convine the city planners, managers, and government
in general to invest on risk reduction programs?
Juracy Soares
Seismologist
Engineering Faculty
Universidad Autónoma de Baja California
Mexico
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23.09.05
piet kurpershoek, Netherlands
Some positive
goals of reducing the risk of a disaster:
-specify areas under threat of a disaster,
- compare the situation with other areas,
make goals
like: in any defined area under threat of a disaster should
- after
15 years more people live longer then now;
- after
10 years the average age of the houses (or real estate in
general) be 1,15 the average age they have now;
- after
4 years amount of inhabitants be 230% compared with now;
- after
3 years population has te be educated more then 250% compared
with
- the population
now;
- after
each year the growth of the population be 1.5 more then in
any other
- area in
the surroundings;
- after
each year economic activities are 1.3 bigger then in any
other area.
- after
each year the variety of cultural exposures will be twice
as much as
- in any
other area.
just some
suggestions
piet kurpershoek
Netherlands
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23.09.05
Marla Petal, Turkey
Dear Colleagues,
Thank
you all for this discussion. I find myself very much in sympathy
with not caring to carve out drm, but rather to push mainstreaming.
Two observations:
1. Despite
recognizing that we need true participation of all stakeholders
at all levels, all of our indicators are very macro in nature.
Indicators
have so far been described in terms like of countries or national
Policies in place etc. Some have rightly pointed out may just
be bureaucratic generation of what we want to hear as opposed
to any indication of what will happen next time. Despite recognizing
the important role of NGOs and CBOs, these folks, and local
communities are seldom involved in participatorily identifying
their own indicators and measuring them. So perhaps we need
another criteria that says that local communities have identified
and are monitoring their own mitigation indicators.
We have used
something in Istanbul, that has been helpful in evaluating
the effectiveness of our mega-city public awareness efforts,
which is adoption of household hazard adjustments. There is
good literature on this subject. We have simplified the elements
of a family disaster plan into assessment and planning, physical
protection and response capacity development (skills and provisions).
This enables us to point out that these foci are common at
every scale of society, and participation required and expected
at all social levels. We emphasize doing the right thing rather
than talking about the right thing. Following training we have
seen tremendous growth in household disaster mitigation behavior.
(see attached
family disaster plan). A similar document is geared towards
organizations and small businesses. In this vein we should
be measuring of micro-credit recipients who have a contingency
plan for business continuity in case of disaster.
2. It seems
that we must also measure negative indicators, because positive
indicators simply don’t tell the whole story. Careful
random samples at the district or city level should tell us:
- of non-compliance
with building codes or
- of land
used not according to land-use plan, or
- of development
construction $ spent without disaster-proofing or
- who know
their evacuation route,
- confident
that they will evacuate and meet their children at safe haven,
Indeed our
first task is to make the political also personal which means
doing ourselves, as we say should be done - and proving that
we have! The second is to get the development community to
walk-the-walk with us, to stop throwing good money after bad,
building schools and hospitals that will not withstand the
next disaster. Let’s be practical and find ways to make
our esoteric terminology relevant to millions of micro-credit
recipients, thus giving substance to building a culture of
safety from the bottom up.
Marla Petal
Disaster
Mitigation Education Program
Kandilli Observatory & Earthquake
Research Institute
Bogaziçi University, Istanbul, Turkey
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22.09.05 Hernan L. Villagran,
Chile
Dear moderators ( Philip Buckle and Graham Marsh ) and colleagues :
In first place I want to thank you for the opportunity you have given me to exchange some ideas/views with regards the main subject of this e-dialogue.
Frankly speaking, I have just finished to download the main material (to be read carefully...) and I have analyzed all the replies that have reached my computer.
The first feeling I want to stress has to do with the so called "scale problem"...It has not been appropiately stressed in the messages I have reviewed. I want to suggest that before start talking about any policy/measure or even planning we have to define the right scale and think accordingly...
Please, find attached a paper I published on ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) and public policy making. it was written in Spanish but you can find a English written abstract.
A second point I want to make deals with the techno-institutional dimension of any mitigation strategy and/or planning. No mention has been made regarding what is the role to be played by the insitutions in creating a good planning/responsive/warning system at all. As many can not believe it, technology is a core factor in facing natural disasters. So, I don´t want to see technology out of this discussion.
A third issue I want to hightlight is related with the "sociological" approach...We have been witnesses of many disaster that have hit several countrys, poor ones, rich ones and intermediate ones. The question here is to discuss on global policies that should be implemented by any country. If we mix the planning scale with the emergency scale we are wrong and thenwe will falll in the sociolofical approach (vulnerable communitiies, the poor and so on). We can help the more vulnerable people (including the poor) if clear and effective public policies are developed on international, regional and national scales.
I will participate more actively in the next topic. Sorry for any English mistake in my writting. The next will better.
El Fenómeno ‘El Niño’ y Políticas Públicas: Un Desafío Científico, Tecnológico e Institucional
Regards,
Hernan L. Villagran
Physicist (MSc)
Analyst /Consultant
Science, Technology and Public Policy
Chile
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22.09.05 Ambrose Oroda,
Kenya
Dear Moderators,
I am pleased to submit my contribution to Topic 1 of the on-going discussion on "Ways of Measuring Progress towards the Hyogo Framework and Disaster Risk Reduction over the period 2005 - 2015". My contribution is given in the attached document. Please let me know, as soon as you can, should you have any problems with the document.
With my warmest regards, I remain a participant.
Ambrose Oroda
Kenya
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22.09.05 Ricardo ZAPATA,
Mexico
Another study that complementes the risk management indicators developed by the Interamerican Development Bank is the ongoing work by ECLAC for IDB with five national case studies to determine: the quality of disaster-related information, the cumulative impact of disasters in those countries and the changes in their risk bearing arrangements (risk reduction, risk transfer and risk management). To see the methodological contents of those studies see: http://www3.cepal.org.mx/iadb-eclac-project/ .
For access to the ECLAC disaster evaluation methodology see:
http://www.eclac.cl/cgi-bin/getprod.asp?xml=/publicaciones/xml/7/12707/P12707.xml&xsl=
/mexico/tpl/p9f.xsl&base=/mexico/tpl/top-bottom.xsl , or http://www.eclac.cl/mexico under the heading "desastres".
Ricardo ZAPATA
Mexico
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22.09.05 Gerardo Huertas, Costa Rica
Intriguing concept...
This note addresses the mental framework societies prefer to work with, the way we present the issue, to make it work.
I may be lazy, but could Mr. Kurpershoek give a few examples of POSITIVE terms and goals???
Thanks in advance,
Gerardo Huertas
WSPA
Costa Rica
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22.09.05 Met Graciela Salaberri , Uruguay
Hello all of you!
Here we are trying to learn what must be done here in my country, Uruguay. We are meteorologists and we are working from our NGO to give everything we learn for reducing risks of disasters.
I am very sorry because my poor English but I will try to make me understand for you all.
In my country there is no exist prevention culture. We are working on it, making diffusion about prevention, prediction, and early warning. We are an NGO, and our concern is people.
We know the land use planning and zoning are absolutely necessary here and many disasters attributed to climate change are the result of land use. We are studying and making people know the result of our studies.
We think everything is collective work, and we think we must
understand the process and make the changes inside public politics.
Every thing you say about is very important to us because you are giving us instrument to use. We are saving information on hydro-meteorological disaster occurrence, the impact and the losses. The most important here is to show how much it cost...unfortunately not only is people life the most important. When I read all you say here, I can understand we have to continue with our job, and we are not alone like we feel.
Thanks to all of you
Met Graciela Salaberri
Sociedad Civil
Amigos del Viento
Meteorología Ambiente Desarrollo
Luis Piera 1931/001
C.P 11200
Montevideo,Uruguay
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22.09.05 Alekssandr Kuzmenko,
Ukraine
Dear colleagues,
I thank all organisations and persons who make this discussion possible.
First of all I would like to mark there is a difference between disaster risk reduction and disaster loss reduction: the last is preservation of values and resources and the first is decrease of a probabilistic estimation so such decrease may be a result of changes in assumptions or techniques of calculations - wrong or correct.
I recognize the initiators bear in mind disaster risk reduction as a result of right both assumptions and calculations. Nevertheless the judge of a theory is practice and experience namely reduction of loss in our case.
Radiation, temperature, fire, wind are not dangerous in themselves. Danger appears in our mind when we become aware of deficiency means of our activity. Moreover when anybody designs a device he/she needs to know specific information regarding conditions of use; a thermometer for a swimming pool and a thermometer for a blast furnace will be different.
So risk may be considered in terms of knowledge (about potentially dangerous materials and processes) and ability to react (prevent loss).
Note that zero risk corresponds with a) full ignorance, b) 100% knowledge and 100% ability; maximum risk corresponds with 100% knowledge and 0% ability (actually it is not risk but 100% failure).
Following rights on security we might expect to find labels like "This equipment has been tested and found to comply with..." or "We warn smoking is dangerous for your health" on all things and systems for human activity.
Alekssandr Kuzmenko
Director of projects,
Telecommunications and Partnership
Kharkov
Ukraine
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21.09.05 Anton Imeson,
Netherlands
Dear
Dear All,
We are certain that a strategy for reducing the risk of disasters would benefit by taking actions that address the following issues.
- The causes of disasters often involve slow and long-term changes in processes that suddenly have an emergent catastrophic change on for example the capacity of soils and river channels to store and transmit water; or in the critical conditions needed for mass movements.
- Meteorologists and hydrologists who model runoff and flooding (inundation) usually ignore the above as well as feedbacks between the system. The concepts and paradigms used are optimised to predict discharge but the models ignore critically important processes.
- Moreover urbanisation, land-use and cover changes are changing the hydrological and hydraulic behaviour of catchments very rapidly. In most parts of the world there is too little data. The hydrological changes brought about by development and urbanisation need to be correctly monitored
- Relevant knowledge from different disciplines is fragmented and disconnected. This could be helped by developing integrated water ?land management policy and laws at different hierarchies (from village to region), for example as used in New Zealand .
- Land use planning and zoning are absolutely necessary for the following reasons. Land and soil fulfil many competing functions ( e.g. soil and water conservation and regulation, production and living space). The impacts of land use change on soil and land functions should be evaluated and not encouraged until there is a catastrophic change in the system. Differences in the frequency of some types of disaster can be explained by how the knowledge of how the causes are understood.
- One of the biggest causes of erosion and flooding in Europe is land-levelling and bulldozing. This has resulted in many catastrophes.
- Many disasters attributed to climate change are the result of land use and cover changes. Until this is faced up to, disasters will increase.
Actions
Only actions at the global level will be discussed.
- An intergovernmental panel that can integrates both processes (land ?soil-water) in a process based way that could also include disasters and also the current sectors. At the centre of this are the changes taking place in the soil and earth surface process systems which now fall outside of attention. The UNCCD and its CST could have possibly dealt with these. More synergies are needed between not only the Conventions but also other UN organisations. The fragmentation of responsibilities is the issue. Experts selected by governments often lack the necessary understanding and experience regarding how the world is changing.
- To combat risks you need to establish an organisation with the capacity and mandate to do this.
Indicators will be discussed separately
Anton Imeson
Netherlands |
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21.09.05 Patricia Alarcon Chaires,
Mexico
I think that the indicators developed by Idea and IDB are a good way. But
maybe if we collected the information in each rural and city communities, we can obtain truly indicators.
Each country can developed their self indicators, in order to establish
performance targets for improving management effectiveness. But it?s
necessary to develop a qualitative measure the advance of each country.And
according with the results help between us for get this goal.
Patricia Alarcon Chaires
University of Michoacan
Mexico |
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21.09.05 piet kurpershoek, Netherlands
Reduction of a risk will only be undertaken if their is a change to overcome, so disaster management needs a positiv outlet. Delimiting a field of policy is an issue when the target of the policy can be determined; as an eaxmple: environment became a grown-up policy after having grown -from- anti -to- goals to be reached within specifid range. Disasters are normal and belonging to the world, avoidance is the negative definiton which has to be tranferred to a positiv term.
Starting with a checklist, based on the taking into account of the threat of a disaster, to be used for people and activities. The first positiv goals are determined The checklist grows after using some years to the level of a societal and individual disaster analysis. And an overall view out of the different goals has been built.
Again after some years the need rises to tranform the list and the anaysis to a societal and individual cost-benefit analysis. Disaster managment has become grown-up and stes goals to be reached by other fields of policy.
piet kurpershoek
researcher dut
Netherlands |
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21.09.05 Saroj Kumar Jha,
United States of America
Dear Moderators(ISDR),
- Measuring progress towards the Hyogo Framework for Action(HFA) must be seen in the broader context of ongoing global and local efforts to mainstream disaster reduction in the growth and poverty reduction policies and programmes.
As a 'disaster reduction' community, we have been challenging the development planners and managers that disasters are unresolved developmental problems and therefore development must include disaster reduction elements, which would mean that 'disaster community' is to collaborate more and more with 'development planners'. We must admit that as a group we have not yet been able to successfully mainstream this in national development processes and perhaps for this reason, 'disaster reduction' is yet not an integral element of growth and poverty reduction agenda if budgetary support or public expenditure on disaster reducing development approaches is any indication.
- Our prime concern today is attainment of MDGs and draft paper by ISDR has attempted to link the strategic goals of HFA with MDGs. To my mind, this is being developed from a disaster management lens, which goes against the basic philosophy of mainstreaming. There are national processes for poverty measurement and assessments, income and growth estimates, indicators to measure growth in various sectors of economy and so on. Our set of indicators to track progress towards HFA will have to be embedded in the national indicators for poverty reduction and growth. Once we have an agreement on this, it is much easier to identify the indicators and also institutionalize the process in the institutions which are responsible for tracking poverty and growth. We can
learn a lot from 'gender' and 'environment' mainstreaming approaches.
- The existing national growth and development indicators need to be analyzed in the context of disaster impacts and then identify auxiliary development indicators which have a direct correlation with disaster reduction. This integration of auxiliary indicators with national development monitoring system can take place at two levels--1. auxiliary macroeconomic indicators which country planners will be interested to own and monitor-e.g. reduced disaster losses(direct and indirect) enable rising GDP and per capita income; reducing agriculture production losses due to disasters enable increase in agriculture productivity etc. and 2. process indicators which the nodal Ministries/agencies in charge of disaster management at federal/provincial and local level could monitor thru the sectoral Ministries, e.g. growth in hazard resilient building stock(due to better enforcement by trained municipal staff and technical supervision by trained municipal engineers)--the census in many countries does include data on housing and with small changes in the parameters we can have
data on hazard resilient housing.
- The real issue here is that we don't have a good quality/high resolution
historical disaster loss database in most of the countries. To lend credence to our argument, development of national disaster loss database has to begin quickly so that there is a substantive evidence of disasters affecting poverty and growth. Most of the research papers and tools we have today, are not based on systematically developed national inventory of such records. There are data systems, tools and methodologies available with national institutions for growth and poverty assessment. We must get disaster vulnerability parameters identified(may vary from country to country) in the national monitoring systems. Integrating these parameters in growth and poverty measurement will have lasting impact in our efforts to mainstream disaster reduction in development planning.
- My worry is that we continue to be quite sectoral in our approach, and yet talk about mainstreaming. It will suffice to say that in our journey towards measuring HFA, we have to begin thinking from a development perspective and how development is influenced by vulnerability reduction strategies. I suggest that draft attempted by ISDR be developed from a growth and poverty reduction lens else this may adversely affect our collective endeavor towards mainstreaming disaster reduction in development.
Best regards
Saroj Kumar Jha
Senior Infrastructure Specialist
Hazard Risk Management Team
The World Bank Group,
phone: (202)-458-2726
fax:(202)-522-3227
United States of America |
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21.09.05 Luis Mauricio Pinet Peralta,
Mexico
The discussion and comments have been excellent, informative and simple as well. I would like to make another comment, although much shorter. In measuring progress in disaster risk reduction and also in preparedness, I have focused (at my current job) on communication. Not only the technical aspects of the communication process and not only those related to Information technology either.
Effective communication strategies should include:
Established relationships among stakeholders: This can be focused by functional area, by emergency management processes or by other categories. 14 months ago some colleagues and I worked on a study focusing on health sector preparedness and its impact on emergency management. Among other things we found that communication among many agences was inexistent; there was no relationship and therfore no knowledge of the others' missions, expectations, capabilities, etc.
Information sharing: supported by the example above, good interagency relationships promotes sharing data and information that can be critical not only during emergency response, but also during preparedness and can be utilized to support disaster risk reduction as well.
Accessiblity: Information must be inclusive, not only integrated. All members of the community must be capable of accessing actionable information. For example, during my consulting work in the disability field, we have gathered data related to the deaf and hard of hearing community, and have realized how excluded these communities are from basic information. They cannot act, participate, promote or improve any part of the emergency process and therefore, increase their vulerability. The same may occur at other levels, were groups do not have access to information that is useful and promotes actions.
We can measure progress by defining and determining the type(s) of relations in place (number of interagency roundtables, tabletops, etc), the degree of information sharing among them and the degree to which such information is shared.
Regards,
Luis Mauricio Pinet Peralta, M.Sc., EMT-P
Emergency & Disaster Health Services Specialist
Mexico
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21.09.05 Paola Albrito , Switzerland
Dear Colleagues and Glenn,
Thank you for sharing valuable experiences and questions stimulated by the dialogue.
Glenn, the challenges identified by UNEP in Paris and the solutions you put forward are part of a process that implies: to recognise activities that are contributing to the Hyogo Framework and then identify an area where the agency can convey energy from different actors to make sure that information, activities and achievements can be shared at all levels.
Reporting on progress is very much part of the process mentioned above that starts by identifying who is doing what within the Hyogo Framework Priority Areas and to highlight any gap (issues that are not covered or addressed by any actors). This is precisely the purpose of the Matrix of Commitment and Initiatives mentioned in the Strategic Direction document (annex Annex 3 below attached for your easy reference). The purpose is to use the information received to map existing commitments, programmes, partnership, resources and identified gaps.
The matrix should also serve to identify key organisations willing to assume responsibility for the promotion of networks or other operational platforms in support of specific priority areas.
The matrix should also reflect existing reporting mechanisms in the areas concerned that can contribute to monitoring progress.
This on-line dialogue is actively contributing to the creation of guidelines to support the monitoring of progress towards disaster risk reduction outcomes identified in the Hyogo Framework therefore providing another tool to advance on the HF goal.
So far, within the UN/ISDR secretariat we have received a number of feedbacks from different agencies and organisations and countries advancing in identifying their activities and initiatives within the context of the HF priorities for action.
While this information is going to be shared for easy reference on the ISDR website shortly, we are working on the process of conveying all these elements so to have a clearer picture on the disaster risk reduction activities, commitments and reporting progress.
Paola Albrito
Programme Officer
International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, UN/ISDR
Palais des Nations, CH-1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland
Office A.581 (Doors 15 &17)
Tel.:++41(0)22.917 28 54, Fax:++41.(0)22.917 05 63
http://www.unisdr.org & http://www.eird.org |
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21.09.05 John Norton, France
I appreciated your comments about measuring money; the work we have been doing in Viet Nam on preventing economic loss caused by typhoon and flood damage to homes has the same focus, and it is very easy to compare the real prevention costs of strengthening existing homes and public buildings against direct reconstruction costs for a destroyed house or school, albeit much harder to measure the knock-on economic and social effects of losing once home and contents.
Thanks for your input.
John Norton
DWF
B.P.13, 82110 Lauzerte, France
tél: +33 (0) 563 95 82 34
fax/télécopie: +33 (0) 563 95 82 42
www.dwf.org
DWF est une Association de Solidarité Internationale régie par la loi de 1901 |
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20.09.05
Gerardo Huertas,
Costa Rica
Sure,
The simplest way that comes to my mind is researching past losses
for the farm animal industry in the Caribbean, an area where high
winds (islands) and flash floods (Central America, Venezuela) produced
by hurricanes seem to punish the same places over an over.
Then civil engineers could show the way these losses could be
prevented by way of cheap and simple measures than can be applied
to the construction of the infrastructure holding poultry and or
pigs.
Finally, a few pilots could be started.
When you compare results after the next hurricane season, you
could have your indicators for DR and for the Ministries of Agriculture
and the farm animal industry.
I am just copying, adapting and applying into the veterinary world
what I heard at the Kobe meeting from banking and insurance companies,
plus the retro-fitting of public buildings in the Caribbean!
Regards,
Gerardo Huertas
Costa Rica
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20.09.05
Ilan Kelman,
United States of America
An indicator of effectiveness which power brokers tend to prefer
these days is money. Cost-benefit analyses and related species are
so artificial and have so many weaknesses that their credibility
should be exceedingly limited. Unfortunately, they tend to have the
most credibility and are the basis upon which many decisions are
made.
We can play that game too. We could measure progress in disaster
risk reduction by measuring the money saved.
I have started by compiling at http://www.ilankelman.org/miscellany/MitigationSaves.rtfcase
studies where the cost of a disaster risk reduction measure is
known and the money saved by that expenditure is known. Comments,
corrections, and additions are welcome, particularly in order to
bring the list up-to-date. See also "Good Capitalists Stop
Disasters"http://online.northumbria.ac.uk/geography_research/radix/resources/kelman-good-capitalists-stop-disasters.doc which
suggests that, even with the current shift of the political paradigm
in many countries, disaster risk reduction should be prominent
for action. The argument would be that any lack of action suggests
that governments should better understand capitalism.
So, yes, we could play that game. Rather than speaking of lives,
livelihoods, and sustainability, we could talk in their money and
capitalism language in order to promote disaster risk reduction.
But should we?
Ilan
ilan_kelman@hotmail.com
United States of America
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20.09.05
Mayumi Yamada, Japan
My opinion may be close to Abdel?s ones below. The indicators could
be further explored based on:
- Identification of vulnerable areas in terms of peoples? perceptions
as well as scientific data/information;
- Identification of existing solidarity groups within so-called ?community?;
normally, one community is not just ?one?, but diverse.
- Identification of community facilitators within solidarity groups,
who can lead the member to disaster reduction
- Reliability of community/solidarity group based models of disaster
reduction (i.e. coping strategies/mechanism), which can be extended
to other places/communities, without much support from outside
interventions.
Best wishes,
Mayumi Yamada (Ph.D.)
Researcher
Disaster Management Planning Hyogo Office,
United Nations Centre for Regional Development (UNCRD)
Hito-Mirai-Kan, 1-5-2 , Wakihama-Kaigan-Dori, Chuo-ku,
Kobe City , 651-0073 Japan
Tel: (81)-78-262-5560, Fax: (81)-78-262-5568
Email: yamadam@hyogo.uncrd.or.jp |
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20.09.05
John Salter, Australia
Keeping it Short
and Simple is fundamentally important ? especially across so many
variations of use, users and? stakeholders?.
Using the seven plus or minus two rule and the risk management framework
of ASNZS4360 (the Australia New Zealand Risk Management Standard),
the five point performance framework at http://www.continuitycentral.com/EPCBFivePoint.xls provides a useful basis for adaption.
Regards,
John Salter
Director, EPCB
Postal: PO Box 484 , Blackwood South Australia 5051
www.emergencyriskmanagement.com
Telephone: 08 81780121
Mobile: 0417 050 910
Fax: 08 8178 0037 |
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19.09.05
Omar D. Cardona, Colombia
Certainly,
disaster risk management "performance" benchmarks
are needed to facilitate decisionmakers? access to relevant information
as well as the identification and proposal of effective policies
and actions. The Risk Management Index, RMI, in the framework of
the "Disaster Risk Manage ment Indicators Program for Americas",
meets this need. It has been applied to 12 countries, some
subnational regions and to some cities. This program was developed
during
the last two years by Institute of Environmental Studies (IDEA
in Spanish),
of the National University of Colombia, with the financial
support of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and with
the participation
of worldwide well-known experts (see cc:) and national advisors
and officials of the national institutions related to the topic
that
collected the information and made the qualifications according
to the risk management benchmarks defined. The RMI, is one
of the set
of indicators proposed for Americas that permits a systematic
and quantitative benchmarking of each country (region or city)
as well
as comparisons across countries.
The System of Indicators developed by IDB-IDEA enables the depiction
of disaster risk at the national level, allowing the identification
of key issues by economic and social category. It also makes possible
the creation of national risk management performance benchmarks (the
RMI) in order to establish performance targets for improving management
effectiveness. The System of Indicators was applied between 1980
and 2000 (in periods each 5 years) to see the evolution of the countries.
This project has been involved in the activities of the Inter-Agency
Task Force on Disaster Reduction Working Group 3: Risk, Vulnerability
and Disaster Impact Assessment and in the initiatives of ProVention
regarding disaster risk indexing. The four indices of the System
of Indicators for Americas are the Disaster Deficit Index (DDI),
the Local Disaster Index (LDI), the Prevalent Vulnerability Index
(PVI), and the Risk Management Index (RMI). The latter is particularly
relevant and useful for this HF dialogue/virtual conference. See
conceptual framework, project phases, international workshops, outcomes,
reports of results and the technical details in the web site http://idea.unalmzl.edu.co/
In a few words, t he RMI brings together a group of indicators
that measure risk management performance and effectiveness. These
indicators
reflect the organizational, development, capacity and institutional
actions taken to reduce vulnerability and losses, to prepare
for crisis and to recover efficiently from disasters. This index
was
designed to assess risk management? performance?. It provides
a qualitative measure of management based on predefined? targets?
or benchmarks?
that risk management efforts should aim to achieve. The RMI was
constructed by quantifying four public policies, each of which
has six indicators.
The policies include Risk Identification, that comprises the
individual perception, social representation and objective assessment;
Risk
Reduction, that involves the prevention and mitigation; Disaster
Management, that comprises response and recovery; and, governance
and Financial Protection, that is related to institutionalization
and risk transfer.
Following the performance evaluation of risk management method
proposed by Carreño, Cardona and Barbat (2004), the valuation
of each indicator is estimated based on five performance levels
( low, incipient, significant, outstanding , and optimal ) that
correspond to a range from 1 ( low ) to 5 ( optimal ). This methodological
approach permits the use of each reference level simultaneously
as a ?performance target? and allows for comparison and identification
of results or achievements. Government efforts at formulating,
implementing, and evaluating policies should bear these performance
targets in mind. Alternatively, RMI can be estimated as the weighted
sum of crisped numeric values (1 to 5, for example), instead
of fuzzy sets of linguistic valuation (using a Matlab application).
However, this simplification eliminates risk management non-linearity,
having outcomes less appropriated. In addition of the reports
of
the project, where it is possible to see the conceptual support,
the technical details, the tables for benchmarking for countries
or cities, attached you can find a paper with the basic description
of RMI.
All the best,
Omar D. Cardona
Former Technical Director of Americas Program
Evaluation of the risk management performance
M. L. CARREÑO, O. D. CARDONA, AND A. H. BARBAT
1Technical University of Catalonia, Barcelona, Spain
2Universidad Nacional de Colombia, IDEA, Manizales, Colombia
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19.09.05
Anita Dwyer, Australia
Hello Moderators and Members
In addressing Topic 1, I will focus on three of the questions that
the Moderators suggested:
1. What linkages are there between disaster management and wider
social, economic, environmental and political programmes? I view
natural disasters as magnifying the complex socio-economic and political
situations already existing within the affected societies, rather
than creating completely new social conditions. As a result, disaster
management, which includes a focus on disaster risk reduction, must
link into wider social, economic, environmental and political programmes.
This requires national coordination with a focus on local priorities,
as suggested by the Hyogo Framework.
In Australia, there is a Natural Disaster Mitigation Program, which
is coordinated by the federal government and focuses on reducing
risk (which we largely refer to as mitigation in Australia). This
program supports local mitigation activities that are specific to
the socio-economic, political and environmental needs of that community.
For example, mitigation activities in Indigenous Communities have
focused on community awareness programs, which is similar to how
health and education activities are delivered. In agricultural communities,
mitigation activities have focused on structural engineering projects
that support local farming practices. While mitigation activities
do take into account some of the complex social conditions, there
is still room to improve the link between the delivery of the disaster
programs with the social programs. It is only then will we truly
capture the meaning of 'building resilient communities'. (Information
about the Natural Disaster Mitigation Program can be found at: http://www.dotars.gov.au/localgovt/naturaldisasters/index.aspx )
2. How do we measure progress where success may be demonstrated by
what has not happened, by the avoidance of death, damage and loss?
This is an extremely important question, for it relates to the cost
effectiveness of mitigation/risk reduction activities, and recently
has become of great interest to the Australian Government. If national
funding is being directed towards local mitigation activities, how
can both local communities and national governments measure the benefit?
I have noticed that both the US and Canadian Governments began focusing
on this before Australia and are still grappling with clear measures.
In Australia, we face two problems: the first relates to the lack
of available data for measuring 'loss', which makes it difficult
to then prove that losses have been avoided. The second problem relates
to the issue addressed in Question 1: successful disaster mitigation/reduction
management should be integrated with wider social programmes so that
resiliency can be measured by the general health, economic status
and well-being of a society. In Australia, we have not yet achieved
this level of integration, therefore some benefits of mitigation
are very difficult to measure.
3. How do we identify and describe indicators? While this debate
is not new, I think it continues to be very important, especially
with regards to developing indicators for the effectiveness of mitigation
and resilience. I developed a study a couple of years ago, attempting
to measure aspects of vulnerability of households to natural hazard
events. There are some problems with the methodology and it has a
focus on quantitative processes, but does look at some issues relating
to the difficulties of using indicators. The study can be found at:
http://www.ga.gov.au/image_cache/GA4267.pdf (Apologies for not yet
putting this into the peer-review sphere).
The document on indicators for measuring the Hyogo Framework is
very useful - while there is perhaps too much detail and some of
the measures
are slightly onerous, I think the approach is to be commended.
The move towards a national approach/focus on indicators for local
priorities
is an important step in integrating national legislative frameworks
with local governance. I look forward to future documentation.
Thanks to the Moderators for this opportunity and I look forward
to future discussions.
Anita Dwyer
National Risk Assessments Project
Geospatial & Earth Monitoring Division
Geoscience Australia (An Australian Government agency) |
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19.09.05
Anna Hovhannesyan,
Yerevan, Armenia
Dear colleges,
First time I faced real
Disaster in 1988 when terrible earthquake happened in my country
Armenia. Thousands of people lost their
lives and those who survived lost their property and houses. It
took 10-15 years to rehabilitate the affected area, people and
economy of the country. Last time I saw the results of the disaster
this summer while working for OCHA in Maldives. As a representative
of a county with high risk environment and vulnerable population I kept making parallels
with the experience in the different countries.
- One
and most crucial thing in disaster risk management is ability
to prevent to minimize possible loses. Lets try to analyze
the budget allocations and place for the risk reduction activity
in
government programmes. Usually it is a formal Disaster management
plan (usually translation to a local language of some existing
document, creation of Disaster management unit or office which
is more a liaison body between government and international
organizations active in the affected by certain disaster).
Time goes IOs leave
the country, the fortune of the unit becomes gloomy, there
is no funding, the Disaster management plan usually prepared
within short
period of time is loosing it?s accuracy and priority. So we
can Indicate the revision of Plan and place of the unit in
the general
structure of the government as one of the most important indicators.
- Next
indicator the existence and status of scientific researches
to identify most vulnerable to disaster parts of the country
and the fortune of recommendations they are submitting to
government.
There are can be strong arguments to advise stopping the commercial
development of the area and reallocation of the population.
- Permanent
information campaigns to keep people inform, that is their
right and Relevant Information sharing stop the speculations
and nervous atmosphere among people (f.e. peoples were reallocated
from some areas recognized dangerous in Asia, but the lack
of information
insecure future gave arise to speculations that that areas
with be use commercially).
Disaster management plan and disaster management centers should
not be founded after disaster will happen it should be a part of
nation infrastructure and economy. It is a coordination body with
superb
ability to ensure reliable and relevant communication. It should
develop update and revise its plans and activities every year.
- Disaster
governing network with its ability to join people vertically
and avoid government burocracy is the next solution and a number
of network members (NGO, professional associations, civic groups,
active individuals) with definite abilities is a very good
indicator for measuring progress.
Anna Hovhannesyan
Communication systems and information specialist
Yerevan, Armenia
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19.09.05
Abdel Wahab Ahmed, Sudan
Dear Moderators
It is an opportuntity for me to follow the this dialogue ,since
Iam working on how to improve the Disaster Management System In
Sudan.
According to what i think as the indicators for preparedness as
a tool for disaster prevention,the disaster profile of the area
/country is the main issue to be considered and the main indicators
should include the main disasters and risks that took place at
least for the last thirty years.indicators that are related to
the direct impacts on human life and related loses should be reported
in details,negative impacts on the social and economic factor is
vital in identifying the volume of the effects.
Identification of the vulnerability of the area .
With reference to the type of the crisis losses and damages have
to be analyzed ,and this should target ,;huaman,social.and economic
impacts.
Indicators should include the community coping mechanism which
will serve in idetifying the adaptive capacity of the community
and serve as a tool for strategy and policy formulations.
Abdel Wahab Ahmed
Disaster Management Project
Programme Unit
WFP/Sudan
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19.09.05
Jim Cory,
United States of America
Hello all,
Thank you for the opportunity to participate in this discussion.
I have been working as an IT/GIS consultant in the US for many
years and recently have dealt with clients where emergency management
was the primary or secondary initiative. In the wake of Katrina
several journals related to IT/GIS have reported failures and successes
of technology as a result of the disaster. Thinking about these
things and the question at hand, I would like to propose several
concrete ways that preparedness could be assessed.
The parameters I suggest we measure are technological and therefore
somewhat quantifiable. I realize that some countries and regions
are less able to support these capabilities than others. I do not
think we should compare different countries to each other, but we
should measure the progress made along these lines, given the initial
infrastructure of each.
There are some very generic ways to prepare for disaster from an
IT point of view. This includes system backups, redundant servers,
off site storage of archives and remote application services. These
abilities should be assessed across the board for communication,
energy, water, governing and security services. The recovery of these
basic services is important for the return of things to normal.
At another level, there is a class of IT systems that are specifically
designed for dealing with disasters. One common characteristic of
these systems is the integration of numerous related databases. Often
these separate data stores are maintained by different agencies in
support of their particular initiatives. There can be a number of
ways these different systems overlap and deal with similar entities.
For example, people and addresses are part of many municipal databases,
from property taxation to water supply. During emergencies, the location
and contact information of people whose job it is to respond becomes
very important, and crosses normal administrative boundaries.
In order to integrate databases, there is usually the need for the
construction and maintenance of a central repository that is updated
regularly. There is also a need for applications that can access
this information and provide reports and analyses based on it. Others
have already noted the importance of GIS in emergencies or disasters.
This technology can provide both planning scenarios based on geographic-dependent
susceptibility and aid in the real time response by managing resources
and identifying areas most affected.
Progress could therefore be measured by the existence and maturity
of these integrating systems and applications. As has been suggested
in other comments, preparedness could also be measured by the effectiveness
of these systems when actual disasters are dealt with. While this
has a somewhat ?too late? quality, it should not be overlooked.
Jim Cory
Systems Analyst
GeoAnalytics, Inc.
1716 Fordem Avenue
Madison, WI 53704
United States of America
tel: 608.241.7100 ext. 232
fax: 608.241.7116
www.geoanalytics.com
http://webpages.charter.net/jcory17 |
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19.09.05
Gerardo Huertas,
Heredia, Costa Rica
I respectfully disagree. I have tried to promote disaster reduction
workshops for the livestock industry, ministries of agriculture and
the like, with little success.
I
believe our "sales pitch" is wrong, they do not
see what's in it for them, and therefore, do not whish to buy
into
it.
Gerardo Huertas, M.Sc.
Regional Director WSPA
Latin America & The Caribbean
World Society for the Protection of Animals (WSPA)
P.O. Box 516-3000
Heredia, Costa Rica
www.wspa-international
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19.09.05
Gerardo Huertas,
Heredia, Costa Rica
These indicators sound very subjective.
How about running computer models with and without the reducing
measures?
If the model is the same (developed by a central clearinghouse)
we could
establish a standardized approach.
Gerardo Huertas, M.Sc.
Regional Director WSPA
Latin America & The Caribbean
World Society for the Protection of Animals (WSPA)
P.O. Box 516-3000
Heredia, Costa Rica
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19.09.05 Dr
John Twigg, United Kingdom
During the past few years, there has been a lot of discussion about
the need for indicators of the effectiveness of disaster risk reduction
? at all levels, from field projects to national and even international
systems. At the supra-project level, that is, the appraisal and evaluation
of systems and organisations, several attempts have been made to
apply indicators of different kinds. There are tools for assessing
national-level disaster reduction systems, disaster preparedness
and early warning systems, organisational capacity and mainstreaming,
and partnerships. Some of these are new, but many have been tested
to a greater or lesser degree. (Descriptions and discussions of some
of these can be found in the ProVention Consortium?s recent report
? Measuring Mitigation: methodologies for assessing natural hazard
risks and the net benefits of mitigation? http://www.proventionconsortium.org/files/measuring_mitigation/Measuring_Mitigation_report.pdf see
chapter 9).
Our starting point should be to learn from such efforts and develop
indicator structures and evaluation methods from them. All work on
indicators is ?work in progress? that will never be finished because
there will always be room for improvement. Rather than looking for
the perfect system at the outset, we should focus on building upon
what we already have.
Dr John Twigg
Benfield Hazard Research Centre
United Kingdom |
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16.09.05
M.I.Zuberi,
Bangladesh
Dear Moderator and Members,
On ' Reporting on Disaster' , be it on the Impact or Progress
on Disaster Mitigation or on 'Preparedness' the Mechanisms we have
are very neat and well prepared, thanks to all the desk work and
brainstorming of the experts and the Committees and Agencies. I
see need of our attention at the other end.
Because, when these 'formats/forms/instructions' are used in the
real world, mostly they are filled in by the national level authorities
in the capitals, and are based on reports sent by the local officers;
and they become just 'rouitine tasks' and 'formalities' - far away
from the real disaster events and situations and whats in there.
Taken this point into account, again there is an indication of
'alternative' channels of Disasater Reporting to validate the existing
system.
There are now strong 'media channel', both print and electronic,
in every developing countries; they along with NGOs are contributing
significantly to Disaster Preparedness, Reporting, Mitigation and
Survival.
We know that the press, media and NGOs are already taken into
consideration in mainstream Disaster Management at the global level,
but I feel they are neglected at the National and lower levels
where b ureaucracy still dominates.
If the global level policy emphasize on alternative pathways more
at all levels, involving the media, press, civil society, scientist
community and NGOs, the whole scenarion of Disaster management
would more come close to sustainable development.
It is very true that the poor are more vulnerable to disasters
at all time and places, they are the majority there and all these
efforts should be aimed at them.
M.I.Zuberi, Rajshahi University,
Bangladesh
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16.09.05
Luis Mauricio Pinet Peralta,
Mexico
Colleagues,
This is an important topic and the responses so far have been very
interesting and encouraging. After many years working and studying
in the US and being from a developing country, I have learned that
disaster management and programs intended to support society, economics,
environment and politics are not frequently seen as synergistic,
but mutually exclusive. During the last year or so, I have been
working at the State level in the US, collaborating with various
groups and agencies interested in establishing social programs
for the homeless, minorities, individuals with disabilities, the
incarcerated, and others. All the strategies and plans are being
put together independently, without considering the potential of
resource sharing, interoperable systems for communication, warning,
transportation, evacuation, sheltering and healthcare. Of course,
some countries have misguided resources that provide some level
of protection from hazards that are great natural threats ?but
seem to have little political or economic impact- and have directed
them to meet the agendas of selected groups only.
For question 1 (which I have partially addressed above) I believe
risk reduction strategies must be included during the planning process
with the objective of reducing poverty and socioeconomic differences.
Planning must be inclusive, similar to what Enrique Castellanos suggests,
where great impacts can be seen from making individuals stakeholders
in disaster management. For example, in Maryland, we have offered
special conferences on emergency preparedness for individuals with
disabilities, targeted at individuals with disabilities expecting
them to not only understand their vulnerabilities, their needs and
who can meet them, but also to understand how their other abilities
and skills can be utilized to protect themselves and their communities.
Unfortunately, some groups have been excluded for such long periods
of time, that they have developed a ?resistance? to sharing resources,
ideas, experiences, expertise, etc. I believe that if disaster risk
is perceived as important as other risks (such as road traffic accidents)
then there are better opportunities to encourage protective behaviors,
such as disaster preparedness. For all it is important to recognize
that the roots of disasters are within societies, not outside them.
During 2002 in theUSnatural disasters affected more than 175,000
people and killed more than 500 (not significant numbers when compared
to other countries), but road traffic injuries affected ?only? 39,237
people and killed 727 individuals. When I see these numbers I start
to think how much effort has been put forth into preventing road
traffic incidents and how much has been put forward for preventing
disasters.
With respect to question six, I think that relocation to safer areas is a measure
of success even when social and historical meaning are affected. There has been
a lot of talk about hurricane Katrina (for obvious reasons) and relocating New
Orleans, for which opinions seem greatly divided. Even when New Orleansprovides
not only social and cultural meaning to Louisiana, there is also an economic
and political interest, but relocating individuals from one high-risk area of
the jurisdiction to another less risky one, would not adversely affect either
of these meanings, at least significantly enough to break the ties already in
place.
Naomi Udom correctly indicated that disasters are marked by loss; this is a concept
individuals must understand, all of us, at all levels. But I also think that
prevention is and should be (at least epidemiologically speaking) applied before
injuries occur, before the disaster affects communities. I would also venture
into adding to her posting by saying that developed countries should have lower
risk to disasters, but it is known that technological disasters are more common
in developed countries. Even natural hazards can be as damaging for developed
countries compared to developing ones, if ineffective, uncoordinated disaster
management strategies are not in place, which is what happened with hurricane
Katrina. There was no culture for preventing and reducing risks, even when flooding
had been feared for such a long time, when poverty was putting more people at
risk and forcing them to live on riskier areas of the city, with less access
to services and goods, with less capacity to respond, and with no option but
facing the hazards directly.
For now I will conclude that progress has to be measured by inclusiveness strategies
at the local level (between emergency management, social services agencies, disabilities,
minorities and other vulnerable populations, health departments, fire/police,
etc). How accessible are emergency services (warning, transportation, evacuation,
sheltering, etc), how affordable are housing options and where are these located?
Adequate social policies that prevent near-homeless to become homeless, convicts
to afford habitable housing, health services, childcare, transportation, etc
also promote disaster risk reduction, because individuals are less vulnerable.
More comments later.
Luis Mauricio Pinet Peralta
Mexico |
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16.09.05
Prof. R. Struzak,
Italy
1 Measuring disaster risk reduction is a difficult, and not well-defined
problem. We should perhaps start with unambiguous definitions of
what we are discussing about. It would help us to understand better
each other, and be understood by those who do not participate in
the discussion, but will read its outcome. It would also help to
answer the question what is the purpose of the measuring and who
will use the results and how?
2 The discussion would probably benefit if we differentiate between
a. technological infrastructure (equipment),
b. social infrastructure (people),
c. resources
d. processes
3 May I suggest that governments of the countries that have been successful
in disaster management
(such as New Zealand, Japan, California, France, Germany, etc.) be asked to
share their best practices?
4 In my view, there are few indicators that deserve closer examination:
a. reaction time/ degree of preparedness
b. recovery period/ degree of efficiency
c. losses/ recovery cost
d. cost of the disaster reduction system
5 A United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA)
project on emergency communications confirmed the crucial role of telecommunication.
I n the field, reliable communications is often a matter of life or death.
If somebody is interested in more details, I can supply my copy of the evaluation
report of the project.
6 Few months ago, the Communications
Magazine of the Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers initiated discussion of emergency telecommunications
attached please find a copy of my contribution to that discussion.
Prof. R. Struzak
Italy
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16.09.05
Miranda Dandoulaki,
Italy
First of all I would like to thank you for initiating this dialogue.
Please accept some thoughts on issue 1 of Topic 1 Understanding how
to measure progress in disaster risk reduction
1.- What linkages are there between disaster management and
wider social, economic, environmental and political programmes?
How can we delimit the field of disaster risk reduction? Where
possible provide examples and case studies.
a. It seems to me that the very concept of ?disaster risk? needs
to be discussed in the light of the wider social, economic, environmental
processes. What is perceived, identified, defined or declared
as a ?disaster? ?even more a ?disaster risk?- depends highly
on the social, economic and political context and timing (in
terms of circumstances).
b. Delimiting the field of disaster reduction is becoming more
and more difficult as the concept of disaster seems to be less
based on the death and injury toll, damage or even social disruption.
Disaster risk more and more encompass not well defined risks
that develop from processes that most people do not perceive
as dangerous. In some cases people do not even know about these
dangerous processes unless publicity is given to them for some
reason.
c. Some years ago, scientific progress and development was considered
at least by some part of the disaster society, as a way to reduce
disaster risk. I wonder is this is the case any more.
d. Even disaster risks associated with well studied hazards
such as earthquakes or tsunamis is reshaped and takes new forms
due to a series of causes.
To mention some of these that should be examined and improve
our notion of earthquake and tsunami risk:
§ new types of vulnerability deriving from more ambitious and sophisticated
construction,
§ propagated effects of possible financial disruption due to globalization,
§ technological, scientific or institutional dependencies posed
during the sensitive phases of emergency and reconstruction without
previous careful consideration and extensive discussion ( i.e.
mandatory insurance schemes, sophisticated warning systems)
e. Now more then ever disaster risk could actually to be caused
by social, economic, environmental and political programmes and
the disaster society needs to be watchful on this and try to
identify / screen risks associated with these.
Hoping not to have completely missed the point,
Miranda Dandoulaki
Italy
Prefecture of Athens , Civil Protection Bureau
(Temporary working for JRC)
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16.09.05
Wim Looijen,
Netherlands
Dear participants,
A few observations, some in line with comments made earlier:
1. Before we can measure progress we need to establish a baseline
to measure this progress against. This baseline should take into
account at least geographical, socio-economic, political aspects.
It should be unbiased.
2. The most vulnerable people are the poor people whose first
objective is to stay alive at this moment. These people do not
worry too much yet about the future.
3. Disaster reduction is not always high on the political agenda
as it could mean in some cases preparing for something that will
never occur, sometimes it means also to take impopular measures.
4. A measure of succes could be to determine the vulnerability
of people for disasters, taken into account the baseline above.
An example is the work by the Cooperative Programme on Water
and Climate's group on the flood vulnerability index (on a socio-economic
basis). Using Earth Observation and GIS techniques it is possible
to add a geographic component and an early warning component.
In my opinion vulnerability or disaster reduction should be integrated
into spatial planning to make sure that the vulnerabilty of people
and crops is reduced.
5. There are areas where disasters are very likely to happen.
Preparing for disasters is required in those areas. E.g the Red
Cross has achieved some good results in Vietnam by simply adjusting/improving
the construction of housing and creatin awareness among the most
vulnerable people.
Best regards,
Wim Looijen
Pandoro Value Added Services
Netherlands
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16.09.05
Jianping Yan, Canada
Hi Philip and Graham,
Many thanks for your interest. Attached
please find the structure of country risk indicators system. Sorry, I don't have documentation.
In fact, the selection of indicatots and their quantification are
still in design progress. I really hope this dialogue will bring
interesting and valuable results.
I hope this structure can bring up an extensive discussion as well.
Best
Jianping Yan, Ph.D.
Consultant
Natural Disaster Risk Management & GIS
308-110 Keewatin Avenue
Toronto, Ontario
M4P 1Z8 Canada
Tel.: +1-416-4810084 |
|
16.09.05 Tanya
de Corrales,
Andean region
What linkages
are there between disaster management and wider social,
economic, environmental and political programmes?
Conceptual clarification needs to be made about
disaster management and disaster risk management.
From my point of view, disaster management refers
to the way to handle crisis (preparedness and response). Disaster risk management attempts to avoid them.
My comments are addressed to contribute into
disaster risk management perspective.
I consider that reduction of vulnerabilities
and risks should be considered the most relevant
link between disaster management and the mention development related programmes.
The possibility of achieving social, economic
and environmental goals of development and the
feasibility of maintaining sustainable processes
in those directions are often hindered by the currents natural disasters.
For these reasons any social, economic or environmental
programmers should include disaster reduction
management in order to guarantee the achievement
of sustainable development goals. This is also true for risk reduction and for responses and recovery for disasters.
Furthermore, disaster reduction management implies
two fundamental focus of interest. Developing
and applying knowledge on hazards and reduce them
if possible on one hand and reducing risk and vulnerabilities
in the economic, social and environmental spheres on the other.
Due to the above given reasons development programmes
should always act in favor of reducing exposure
and fragility of the systems to which they belong
(including their own fragility and exposure) and improving the systems resilience.
Two different, complementary perspectives are
needed to incorporate disaster reduction management
into social, economic and environmental initiatives
for development. The first is to what extend development initiatives
themselves may be conducive to risk reduction or to increases
its risk. The second is how vulnerable to natural hazards the initiatives themselves are.
Regarding the first perspective, due to the fact
that exposure, fragility and resilience result
from development processes and may be influence
by science and technology, risk reduction management as a practice need to be integrated into development management.
In fact, many social, economic and environmental
development programs may be relevant for disaster
risk reduction even if they are not aim at disaster
reduction because they may affect vulnerability by reducing
exposure, fragility or by improving resilience.
Examples:
At national level social programs or economic
development programs aim at poverty reduction
(not explicitly aim at risk disaster reduction) could
reduce migration trends towards hazards prone zones, those reducing
fragility of human settlement in housing programs in certain location.
Relocation of poor communities, and programs oriented to improving
services in poor areas as well as other kind of economic or social
programs resulting in household income improvement could also benefit the resilience of social groups involve.
A water supply program in a desertic zone may
also contribute to disaster risk reduction related
to scarcity of water cause by climatic anomalies.
A capacity building program aim at enhancing
community participation is a strong base for improving population resilience to disasters.
However, examples in which development programs
create new hazards and vulnerabilities are quite
numerals. These are the cases of changes in hydrological
regimens originated in inadequate agriculture practices (i.g.
trough erosion or deforestation), or by inappropriate infrastructure design and construction.
The second perspective refers to how vulnerable
the programs are to risk hazards and how to reduce
their exposure, fragility or increase their resilience.
From this perspective, the main focus should
be oriented to reach sustainable goals in Program,
project or activities, avoiding affectation during
disasters crisis or creating resistance and resilience
to hazard impacts. In other words, vulnerability reduction
must be a relevant item in sectoral day to day actions. In this case, programs should face some relevant questions:
Is the program zone a disaster prone area? Is
it an adequate location? The program is fragile
to hazards?; What kind of affectation could derive
from hazard impact and where they could occur? How to reduce vulnerabilities
to avoid future affectations in goals and achievement? Could
the context recover the previous state and functionality? How social,
economic and environmental program should be prepared to face response and recovery?
Conclusions:
1. DRM must be integrated as day to day practices into development
management.
2. Attempt to develop DRM as a separated field should be avoided.
3. DRM goals can not be segregated from development
goals neither should DRM become an independent
practice outside of the development field.
Tanya de Corrales
Consultant
Andean region
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15.09.05 Florence Egal, FAO/Rome
1.- What linkages are there between disaster management and wider
social, economic, environmental and political programmes? How can
we delimit the field of disaster risk reduction? Where possible provide
examples and case studies.
One issue we may want to pay more attention too is resilience of
livelihood systems to natural disasters as well as the causes and
consequences of changes in livelihoods systems.
A series of factors are generating changes in livelihood systems,
among which economic development and population pressure, but also
- often related - inappropriate macro-economic policies and conflicts.
This induces changes in natural resource management which in turn
increase vulnerability to natural disasters, as well as changes in
lifestyles (in particular housing) which may become more vulnerable
to natural disasters. This is often a downward spiral where poverty
leads people to adopt environmentally dangerous and unsafe practices,
and natural disasters increase destitution.
2.- How do we measure progress where success may be demonstrated
by what has not happened, by the avoidance of death, injury, damage
and loss?
We should look ar resilience of livelihood systems and capacity
of households to cope with the crisis. "Positive deviance" approaches
documenting what helped some households or communities cope with
the natural disaster and minimize its impact should provide us
useful insights.
3.- How do we identify and describe indicators of
- Outcomes or achievement
International and national policies and programmes checked for
relevance to 1/ natural disasters and 2/impact of natural disasters.
% of population significantly affected
% of affected people able to resume sustainable livelihoods within
X-days
4.- How do we take account of the disaster risk environment and context of
different countries?
Natural disasters and coping strategies rarely respect borders. Effective regional
collaboration will be required for prevention, preparedness as well as mitigation
and rehabilitation/reconstruction
6.- Is managed relocation of settlements from high-risk areas a
measure of success, for example moving communities away from
traditional areas to new sites that are safer but may have less
social and historical meaning?
One should wonder why these traditional areas have become unsafe
and see what could be done about it (understanding the impact and
mechanism of the natural disaster on the local population and identifying
interventions to prevent or mitigate some of these factors).
In the case of recurrent natural disasters where improved practices
and better preparedness cannot be expected to make a significant
difference, livelihoods diversification - including training and
support - will likely be the most appropriate approach.
7.- How do we take account of an evolving environment where local and national
conditions and data and hazards are themselves changing, for example changing
hazard regimes resulting from climate change? We assess and monitor changes
in livelihoods systems
Florence Egal (FAO/Rome) |
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15.09.05 Jianping Yan, Canada
While working for the World Bank, I have drafted some country-level
indicators for measuring DR and DRM.
They can be devided into two sets of indicators, which in turn
can be integrated upto two indices-Country Risk Index and Country
Resilience Index. The first one is designed to measure the risk
a country is facing, composed of disaster indicators, hazard indicators
and indicatiors of physical and social-economical vulnerability;
the second one is designed yo measure coping/adaptative capacity
of a country that include DRM strategy and plans, institution,
risk awareness, finanicial preparation, emergency preparation.
During aggragation of indicators, i find it's hard to weight each
indicators.
Another question is that the unit of analysis has also take into
account. here the unit of analysis is referred to as country, province,
city, and community. For each analysis unit, indicators should
be a bit different.
Jianping Yan, Ph.D.
Consultant
Natural Disaster Risk Management & GIS
308-110 Keewatin Avenue
Toronto, Ontario
M4P 1Z8 Canada
Tel.: +1-416-4810084 |
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15.09.05 Elias
Mabaso,
Zimbabwe
I would be hesitant to call a situation where hazards are increased
a type of development e.g. increase in landslides. Development interventions
need to factor in risk reduction measures by doing a comprehensive
hazard analysis. Development should entail a change for the better
be it social, economic, political or physical.
As a starting point, development indicators can be very helpful to
assess risk reduction in a number of developing countries, though
the greatest challenge and question is whether developed countries
have reached such an advanced stage and level in risk reduction.
If we consider development indicators such as poverty reduction,
what ever measure of poverty is used, this may give indications on
risk reduction levels. Measures which may be easy to quantify such
as economic indicators should also be linked with issues of governance.
Good governance though difficult to universally agree on what it
is means is critical in risk reduction since it has a bearing on
economic performance and poverty reduction initiatives and commitment.
Isn?t this part of what constitutes development so most development
indicators can be used to develop indicators for measuring disaster
risk reduction?
The link between disasters and development is no longer a disputable
fact so lets work more to perfect and agree on development indicators
for risk reduction.
Elias Mabaso
Zimbabwe |
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15.09.05
Grant COULTMAN-SMITH, Australia
ENRIQUE,
Good synopsis. Cuba seems to be keeping it essentially simple.
Simplicity is the key as it devolved the understanding of the problems
and mitigatory strategies to the lowest common denominator, the
very people most effected. The lower economically advantaged. It
is imperative to remember, the people most effected aren't those
with the degrees or in public office. they are the people who,
due to the socio-economic status are required to live in crowded
slums or build on flood prone or landslip areas. try to tell them
you're bulldozing their home in the interests of their safety.
Grant
AUSTRALIA |
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15.09.05
Grant COULTMAN-SMITH, Australia
I agree.
Immediate survival day to day is a far more important and critical
concern than concentrating on what MIGHT happen. To really contribute
we must all get back to the basics - long term survival. Science & technology
is great but in the immediate future, you can't eat it.
Grant COULTMAN-SMITH
AUSTRALIA
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15.09.05 Glenn Dolcemascolo,
UNEP
Colleagues,
First off, thanks to ISDR, UNDP, ProVention and CRID for initiating
this online dialogue. The issue of assessing progress towards disaster
risk reduction within the context of the Hyogo Framework is very
timely for many reasons, not least of which is that members of
the IATF are preparing responses to USG Jan Egeland?s request to
identify plans, initiatives, resources and areas of intended contribution
and leadership.
Just two days ago in Paris, UNEP held it?s most recent internal
meeting on implementing Hyogo and we will continue inter-divisional
discussions with meetings in Nairobi later this week.
One of the challenges we faced in organizing a response was the
absence of a framework for reporting other than referring to the
broad five priority areas for action. We wanted to steer ourselves
from sterile
lists of ongoing projects and wanted to reflect more of ?how and
how much? we contribute to these goals, but found it difficult
without subtler range of targets and milestones.
One suggestion we forwarded is for UNEP to develop an internal
set of DRR specific objectives and targets and a matrix for monitoring
progress internally.
So, I would pose two or three questions for consideration in this
dialogue.
-
How have other organizations organized their reports on progress
in implementing Hyogo?
- Has ISDR settled on an agreeable matrix for reporting on
progress, or will the matrix only be developed
after indicators have been agreed upon?
- Have any other organizations set their own internal targets
and milestones for disaster risk reduction?
Any insights would be helpful as we prepare our own strategy for
monitoring and evaluating progress towards the implementation of
Hyogo.
Best Regards,
Glenn Dolcemascolo
UNEP
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15.09.05
Enrique Castellanos,
Cuba
Dear moderators Philip Buckle and Graham Marsh:
Please, find below my comments to the questions under the Topic
1. As my mother tongue is not English, please, feel free to correct
any mistake. If my mistake is so huge, let me know and I will rewrite
the sentence.
Although it was mentioned I would like to express that the opinions
given below are strictly personal.
I hope you find the answers constructive and interesting. I tried
to give examples but at the same time to be shortly.
My regards
Enrique Castellanos
IGP
Cuba
Answers:
1. What linkages are there between disaster
management and wider social, economic, environmental and political
programmes? How can
we delimit the field of disaster risk reduction? Where possible
provide examples and case studies.
Disaster Management in Cuba is strongly supported on social, economic,
environmental and political programmes that have been continuously
developed over many years. The social structures and social organizations
cover all regions and all levels and they are used with specific
responsibilities in case of disaster. For example: the Cuban?s
Woman Federation (FMC in Spanish) will assist pregnant woman, elderly
and disability people during the evacuation. The free education
for everyone allows that all population is able to read or understand
news about hurricane forecast and the warning requested by the
civil defense. In the economic sector, besides the economic crisis,
the civil defense authorities are able (by law) to use all economic
resources available in order to protect the population and the
economic itself. The economic investments (by law) are cross-checked
for having compatibility with the disaster management in order
to avoid new disaster or to reduce the existing risk. There are
many other examples in the Cuban case study. In fact, the losses
that we have now are a direct answer of the low development in
infrastructure, specially housing. It is important to mention that
it is not only to have such programmes, but the way that they are
linked (or used) with disaster management. We most consider a disaster
as a major issue and we most find the means the put everything
that we have in order to avoid it or reduce its impact.
I think the limit between disaster risk reduction and national
programmes is fuzzy. In fact, they are very much related each other.
The national programmes must contribute to disaster risk reduction
and must be its foundation. Disaster risk reduction must do effective
use of national programmes for continue improvement.
2. How do we measure progress where success may be demonstrated
by what has not happened, by the avoidance of death, injury, damage
and loss?
At international and national level one can compare previous disasters
consequences with similar magnitude of event. Regions like Caribbean,
where 10 or more tropical storms impact every year, progress can
be measured as positive if the consequences are less than before
for a comparable event. At the local level, after change an area
by improving the infrastructure (e.g. housing), the progress can
be estimated if one calculate the expected damage for a 200 km/h
wind speed hurricane impact this area with the previous infrastructure.
What was not lost is the progress made.
3. How do we identify and describe indicators of
- Outcomes or achievement
- Output or policy and programme activities
- Process and activity.
Identify indicators need to have great consensus among the different
stakeholders or at least the disaster management authorities in
different countries. A working version may be done in different
countries as an example for testing the indicator and the assessment
model. Certainly, some countries may be willing to provide the
information requested.
I suggest measuring in every period two issues: the achievement
and the progress of the HFA. As was agreed and established by the
HFA a number the actions point (key activities) within five priorities
for action, ISDR can measure if every country has achieved these
points by a number of indicators. The indicators, activities and
priorities can be weighted and a general score may be ranked into
?achievement categories? such as excellent, good, acceptable, regular
and unsuitable. Comparing two evaluation periods progress can also
be measured into ?progress categories? such as: progress high,
progress medium, progress low, stopped (stagnated) and retrocession
(backward). At the end a country may be evaluated as acceptable
(by its achievement) and progress low (by its progress compared
with the previous evaluation).
I am concern in the identification of the indicators about the
?performance?. Many key activities are asking if the country has
established something like e.g law, act and regulations, land use
planning, codes, etc.; but do they work? Talking with some colleagues
I know some countries examples were the framework is setup, but
it does not work in reality. Then, measuring the progress in completeness
of the framework and measuring the progress in the expected outcome
(reduce disasters losses) are both important but different. A country
may have its HFA complete but the performance is weak and disaster
losses are increasing. If the country is impacted regularly is
easy to measure the performance, otherwise it will be more difficult.
Also measuring the performance of many indicators for a single
expected outcome may not be efficient. There are ways to estimate
the (sub) performance for keys activities or priorities for action,
but if that will be carried out by the country itself the result
may be biased. An external evaluator may not be cost-effective.
4. How do we take account of the disaster risk environment and
context of different countries?
We need to be flexible in survey of the indicators and consider
different implementation ways of the same key activity depending
of the country. For example, Cuba does not have specific fund for
disaster, however, there is the National Institute for Reserves
of the State, which establish the amount of every product (like
cement) that every organization need to have in stock ready to
use in case of disaster. Instead of save money, the government
?reserve? products needed and after its use there is a financial
compensation from the Ministry of Economy and Planning. The focus
could be on ensuring the key activity rather than on the way it
is implemented.
5. How do we describe and how do we link and combine indicators
of quantity and quality.
There are different methods to create an assessment model with
quantitative and qualitative indicators. Briefly, all indicators
must be standardized to the same value range, let say 0-1. The
quantitative indicators are standardized by the mathematical function
and the qualitative indicators can be standardized by Direct Method
(expert opinion), Pairwise Comparison (Saaty, T.; 1980) or Rank
Ordering (Janssen, R. 1994). I have successfully use it for national
landslide risk assessment in Cuba in the GIS ILWIS ( www.itc.nl ) using the spatial multi-criteria evaluation module.
Janssen, R, and Van Herwijnen, M. (1994) Multiobjective decision
support for environmental management + DEFINITE DEcisions on an
FINITE set of alternatives : demonstration disks and instruction.
Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht( Netherlands). 232 p., 16
p. + two 3,5" disks. ISBN 0-7923-1908-7
Saaty, T. (1980) The Analytical Hierarchy Process. New York, McGraw
Hill.
6. Is managed relocation of settlements from high-risk areas a
measure of success, for example moving communities away from traditional
areas to new sites that are safer but may have less social and
historical meaning?
It may depend on the social context of the community. Are they
more concern about losing their lives than losing their historical
settlements roots? History has many examples where entire populations
have been moved to safer places, but only when they are completely
convinced. Role of the government and local leaders in communicating
the risk properly in such cases is crucial.
7. How do we take account of an evolving environment where local
and national conditions and data and hazards are themselves changing,
for example changing hazard regimes resulting from climate change?
Building dynamic models and incorporating changes in the model
when new assessments are carried out. What happens is that many
authorities do not recognize the need of update the assessment
wit new data and upgrade the assessment model with new finding.
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15.09.05
M.I.Zuberi, Bangladesh
Dear Director, ISDR, Moderators and Members,
Good morning. I am a university teachers, my subject of interest
is environmrnt and biodiversity and I have been working with local
communities and NGOs for environment management for last three
decades.
We are going through critical stages both through (a) facing increasing
incidence of disasters all over the globe and (b) consequent high
level of activities for mitigating these disasters.
I observe that the disasters are affecting people more in the periphery
and the activities are yet more intense at the 'top' level mostly
with international level meetings, need assessments and decision
making; also there are some activities at the national government
levels - again within the four walls in the capitals.
We see the majority who suffer from the disasters out in the environment
are yet to be included in the activities. This is true for the
victims of natural disasters in Bangladesh or in the USA, there
may be differences in degree.
I suppose we are aware of this, and that's why this e-conference
has been arranged. We hope that we will get many ideas and suggestions
which will be considered by the ISDR and in the implementation
of the Hyogo Framework.
Talking about national level and more specifically below at the
local - I attach most emphasis to 'reaching the primary stakeholders'
- those whose lives are really devastated by disaster. But in most
cases todate that can hardly be achieved.
In fact this is the main reason why all the efforts like MDGs
are failing.
I can see the only way is to create a mechanism of reaching them
is through NGOs and CBOs - not the big ones only - but all the
medium and smaller NGOs and community groups who have direct contact
with the local communities.
If UNDP or any other international body can develop an 'umbrella'
organization bringing these small NGOs/CBOs staying close with
the local community, then they can be reached easily with little
efforts and resources.
Disaster Risk Reduction and Disaster Management can be really
effective when those most vulnerable are in the umbrella.
Are there alternatives ? Do I sound a bit off ? Please tell us.
Thank you all,
M.I.Zuberi, Third Science Building, University of Rajshahi, Bangladesh
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15.09.05
Catherine Giovas, Australia
My experience working with people at a grass roots and community
levels is that they rarely if ever measure risk reduction in terms
of quantified figures re. disaster risk reduction. They are more
interested in trends in their general quality of life, livelihood,
environment and the local economy.
If figures such as the 1 in a 100 year flood are misunderstood
(and the 1% probability even more so) then other numeric data is
also going to be hard to understand. 'it is not enough to say that
local people go just on gut feelings, but they do often respond
in terms of subjective assessment. Recognising local knowledge,
local history and local wisdom can complement and give a context
and meaning to quantitative data.
Reconciling local assessment methods with the numeric data collected
by governments is hard but the methods of both have equal weight
in determing priorities.
regards
Catherine Giovas
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15.09.05
Ibraheem Alabi Olomoda, Niamey Niger
Dear Sálvano Briceño,
I quite agree with you on all the points you highlighted and I am
sure the project when finally completed will be of immense assistance
to sustainable development particulaly in Developing Countries.
My fear all the time is that we in Developing Countries are not always
prepared enough or even given disaster mitigation a high level of
thought needed rather our interest all the time is on reliance on
assistance to affected people.
This project in my view is going to be of great assistance and
I hope the result will be comunicated to those concern.
My regards
Olomoda
Data Analyst
Niger Basin Authority,
Niamey Niger
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15.09.05
Prasad Babu,
Bhutan
How do we meausre the relation between Development and hazards
due to development. For example: There were less Landslides in our
region before it developed but now number is increasing fourth fold.
with best regards
Prasad Babu
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15.09.05
Dr. Necati Dedeoglu,
Turkey
Dear Moderator,
Recent events in USA has shown once again that the best method of
preparing for any sort of emergency is equal distribution of resources
( power, income, education, public services, opportunities) among
all citizens of a nation. When there is injustice or marginalisation,
you don't have a real community; in times of stress it comes apart.
Some already disadvantaged groups, the poor, elderly, disabled,
racial and ethnic minorities are somehow neglected and do not receive
proper care, in response there may be alienation, looting and violence.
In fact, disasters should bring out feelings of sharing, cohesion
and community support. They mostly do in communities where there
is democracy, trust, friendship, equity.
I argue that the best indicators to be used for measuring resilience
to disasters and risk reduction in societies are indicators of
income distribution, educational attainment, medical services
use, unemployment, housing, morbidity and mortality rates of
different social groups (residance, sex, social class, age, racial
and ethnic, etc.). Equity and justice within and among nations
is not only good for disaster preparedness; it is also one of
the best method for stopping terrorism, one of our biggest global
problems. Best regards.
Dr. Necati Dedeoglu
Turkey
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15.09.05
Naomi Udom,
Nigeria
Dear Moderators,
Below are my response.
1. The Government of Nigeria has linkages such as;
(a) The National Emergency Management Agency.
(b) The Environment program with its ministries and corresponding
agencies that are operative at both national and state levels.
(c) The Space Program from where we have the National Space Research
and Development Agency and her various Research Centres such
as Centre for Basic Space Science, Centre for Geodesy and Geodynamics,
Centre for Remote Sensing, Centre Satellite Technology Development,
etc, charged with specific environment missions and mandates.
Centre for Basic Space Science has as one if its mandates; to
conduct research to expand the frontiers of knowledge in Atmospheric
Sciences, Meteorology, and Environmental Physics and to promote
the introduction of these fields of study into the curricular
at all levels of Nigerian educational systems.
(d) The Fire Service Department.
How we can delimit the field of disaster risk reduction are:
(a) Grassroot campaign should be launched to sensitize the
public (young & old, both genders) of the basic need
to take precautionary steps in preventing potential disasters.
(b) There should be an induction course for all citizenry on
the use of the required safety techniques (how to use live jackets
in case of flood, how to use fire extinguishers) well in advance
before the occurrence of disaster(s).
(c) Seminars and workshops should be organised for private and
public sectors.
(d) Since Disaster Risk Reduction is all-embracing, it should
be incorporated in the curriculum of Primary, Secondary and as
a general study of tertiary institutions so as to ensure its
posterity.
(e) Government agencies involved in disaster risk reduction should
collaborate with telecommunications industries(Radio and TV),
Meteorological Stations etc, in order to sound an early warning.
Examples
(a) In 2001 a storey building collapsed in Surulere in Lagos,
claiming lives. Authentic report had it that the building had
caved in many years ago, yet the occupants dismissed any possibility
of its total collapse.
(b) In 2004 there was flood in Lagos Island and Ikoyi.
(c) In 2005 there was flood in a part of Enugu City Nigeria.
2. How to measure progress where success may be demonstrated
by what has not happened, such as avoidance of death, injury,
damage and loss :
It is rather ironical if all this can be avoided during disaster.
However, disasters are always marked by loss. On the whole lives
should be saved first followed by the prevention of injuries
etc.
4. Developed countries are less prone to disaster risk. They
have the framework to foresee/forecast potential disasters. Nigeria
launched a low earth orbit satellite meant for remote sensing.
It can be used to monitor the country's vegetation index and
hence guard against deforestation/desert encroachment, forest
fires, flood, urban explosion etc.
6. It is a great measure of success. Primarily lives have been
saved and the present settlers are exposed to a better safer
environment which could also ensure good health to the future
generation (in the case of pregnant mothers and infants).
Naomi Udom
NASRDA Centre for Basic Space Science
Nigeria.
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15.09.05 Campaign
Service center
Campaign Service center is established in 1999. From the beginning
it has been working in the field of flood disaster, social auditing
peace and development. Its main working area is Gandak region. From
the long experience of working in flood disaster the following understanding
are found.
Measuring progress in disaster risk reduction is very difficult
task. It has no certainty when and how occur the disaster. It can
be only estimated possibilities of disaster and preparedness for
the risk minimization.
The setting and use of indicators
1. Less damages of human and material assets.
2. Increase of level of awareness in community
3. Feeling of safety from possible disaster.
Goal
Make secure of human and other assets through minimizing risk.
Expected Results
1. Less damages of human and other assets in comparison of previous
year.
2. Awareness of flood disaster among community people.
3. Feeling secure among community from possible disaster.
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15.09.05
Ilan Kelman
I have recently
been reading Ken Hewitt's (ed.) book "Interpretations
of Calamity" (1983). The critiques and comments which he
and the others make regarding disasters and risk could have been
written
today--in the aftermaths of the Indian Ocean tsunamis and Hurricane
Katrina, or to describe the views of many governments. The references
and evidence which are used, of course, are from before 1983.
We have had more than a generation of these insights and discussions,
from both researchers and practitioners, yet the ideas still
appear
to be new, fresh, relevant, and needed. This
dialogue's topic is "Understanding how to measure progress
in disaster risk reduction". Is my example isolated or is
it indicative that--by whatever metric, targets, benchmarks, goals,
or indicators we choose--we are failing miserably? Our world has
never before been wealthier, we have never before had as much knowledge,
and we have never before had as much opportunity and choice. Yet
have we ever seen as much poverty? Have we ever seen so many people
(not just absolute numbers, but also proportionally) without opportunity
and choice? Why are major calamities still hitting the headlines
when we know what to do to avert them?
Perhaps the answer is
that I am being far too centred on what I have witnessed.
Perhaps the situation has been far worse before. Perhaps improvements
are being made, slowly and with
multiple setbacks, but they are nonetheless improvements. Perhaps.
In New Zealand, the Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management
is consulting on a draft National Civil Defence Emergency Management
Plan.
Information about the process can be found at http://www.civildefence.govt.nz/memwebsite.nsf/wpg_URL/For-the
-CDEM-Sector-Ministry-Projects-Proposed-National-CDEM-Plan?OpenDocument
while the consultation draft is at http://www.civildefence.govt.nz/memwebsite.nsf/Files/Proposed%20National
%20CDEM%20Plan/$file/Proposed%20National%20CDEM%20Plan.pdf
(please note that the length of the websites might cause them to
break into more than one line in this email; please ensure that
the entire website name is used to access the document).
This plan has some excellent ideas which could and should be used
and adapted around the world. A paper document, though, does not
necessarily mean good practice. One test counts: that of a major
event. In New Zealand, the most poignant possibility would be a
major Wellington earthquake, but a significant volcanic eruption,
a South Island earthquake, a tsunami, an epidemic, or a cyclone
are also strong possibilities amongst others. The open public consultation
is an impressive and needed approach, particularly suggesting that
the people own the plan; after all, it is for them. Hopefully,
it will generate useful feedback. With people in the more affluent
countries more concerned about the latest antics of a random film
star or sports brat than with learning first aid or having 72 hours
worth of food and water available, it is unclear how much non-specialists
care to know about disasters, risk, and vulnerability. Nor is it
clear how to change such destructive and arrogant attitudes.
The 2005 World Summit opened in New York today. Is it hope that
we are still talking about the issues covered and that we still
wish to address them? Or is it horror that, after 60 years of trying,
these issues have still not been solved? Notwithstanding the commitment
and good work of the ISDR staff around the world, why do we still
need ISDR when Hewitt and colleagues explained what to do decades
ago? Even if we are making progress, why have we failed to do what
we knew should already have been done?
Yes, let us work out how to measure progress in disaster risk
reduction. We need to know. But let us ensure that we use that
process for determining how much or how little progress has been
made in the past. Then, we might be able to indicate how to accelerate
the process in the future.
Ilan
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14.09.2005
Sálvano
Briceño, Contribution to the debate
Dear Collegues,
I would like to share my enthusiasm to work with all of you in
this on-line dialogue in defining how we can better assess the
progress in disaster risk reduction globally, regionally and nationally.
We are working hand in hand with UNDP and the ProVention Consortium
in this undertaking and expect to involve gradually other partners.
Assessing progress and reporting on the benefits will be an important
task to keep motivation high in implementing the Hyogo Framework
for Action 2005-2015. The challenge is big. We need to be able
to assess and value the advancement despite the difficulty to measure
the disasters that do not happen because of the investments in
disaster risk reduction as part of development.
The Hyogo Framework was the culmination of several years of consultation
among practitioners, agencies, experts and finally a result of
discussions among Governments, who met during long hours of negotiations
before and during the World Conference on Disaster Reduction. The
agreed Framework provides strategic goals and priority areas of
action to guide national strategies and action plans for disaster
risk reduction and the international collaboration to support it.
It also requires specific follow-up from actors at local, national,
regional and international level.
Disaster risk reduction is cross-cutting and inter-disciplinary.
It is a humanitarian concern that needs to be integrated into development
to ensure that development goals, under a sustainable approach,
are reached. Our experience is that a good way to build common
understanding, to share information and build guidance on ways
forward is this type of fora - using cyberspace and on-line dialogues.
We held one with UNDP
in 2003 on developing “ A framework
to guide and monitor disaster risk reduction ” (http://www.unisdr.org/dialogue/index.htm),
which was based on the findings in preparing "Living with
Risk-- A global review of disaster reduction initiatives".
This dialogue identified the course of action needed to develop
a framework for understanding, guiding and monitoring disaster
risk reduction at all levels and was used as a starting point for
developing the Hyogo Framework.
The following year,
the on-line-dialogue “ Priority Areas
to Implement Disaster Risk Reduction - Building disaster resilient
communities and nations ” (http://www.unisdr.org/wcdr-dialogue/),
provided valuable recommendations and inputs to the discussion
and examples of practice to help Governments define the outcomes
of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction.
In the coming four weeks,
we will be engaged in putting yet another stone in the building
of a global capacity to implement
disaster
risk reduction, and assess the progress. Our objective is to use
your advice and ideas to provide guidance for national authorities
and programme managers to use and adapt to their own needs in their
pursuit to "Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities
to Disasters".
I also welcome the cooperation with our two moderators: Philip
Buckle and Graham Marsh. They research and teach various aspects
of disaster risk management at Coventry University in the United
Kingdom. Together and separately they have a broad experience in
research especially in the fields of disaster management, recovery
management, vulnerability and capacity assessment, risk management
and planning and operations.
I look forward in exchanging with you during this fruitful dialogue
exchange.
With kind regards,
Sálvano Briceño
Director, International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, UN/ISDR
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Topic 1, welcome message from the moderator
Dear participant,
Welcome to the online dialogue in which we will be discussing
ways of measuring progress towards the Hyogo Framework and disaster
risk reduction over the period 2005 – 2015.
We want to encourage as many people and institutions as possible
to contribute and we welcome diverse opinions.
We also want participants to encourage others to register and
to participate.
Topic 1 Understanding how to measure progress in disaster risk
reduction
The first topic will run from 12 – 22 September inclusive
and has the subject ‘Understanding how to measure progress
in disaster risk reduction’ Included in this debate are the
issues of developing a common understanding for measuring progress
in disaster risk reduction, and the setting and use of indicators,
goals, expected results, benchmarks, and other tools for measurement.
Tasks for participants may include discussion of the various types
of methodological approaches for developing indicators (qualitative/quantitative,
phased achievements, absolute/relative progress over time) and
consider of practical applications and providing examples and case
studies.
We, as moderators, will prompt discussion if necessary and will
provide feedback during and at the end of each topic. Some initial
questions that we would like addressed are:
- What linkages are there between disaster management and wider
social, economic, environmental and political programmes? How
can we delimit the field of disaster risk reduction? Where
possible
provide examples and case studies.
- How do we measure progress where success may be demonstrated
by what has not happened, by the avoidance of death, injury,
damage and loss?
- How do we identify and describe indicators of
- Outcomes or achievement
- Output or policy and programme activities
- Process and activity.
- How
do we take account of the disaster risk environment and context
of different countries?
- How do we describe and how do we link and combine indicators
of quantity and quality.
- Is managed relocation of settlements from high-risk areas
a measure of success, for example moving communities away from
traditional areas to new sites that are safer but may have
less social and historical meaning?
- How do we take account of an evolving environment where local
and national conditions and data and hazards are themselves
changing, for example changing hazard regimes resulting from
climate change?
Key documents for discussion
Best regards
Philip Buckle and Graham Marsh
Moderators |
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Invitation
ISDR on-line dialogue starts 12 September: Assessing progress
towards disaster risk reduction within the context of the Hyogo
Framework
You are invited to participate
in an on-line dialogue to discuss the key-elements for "Assessing progress towards disaster
risk reduction within the context of the Hyogo Framework".
It will take place from 12 September 2005 to 10 October 2005.
Objective:
The dialogue will explore the views of actors directly engaged
in identifying, applying and using indicators to monitor progress
in disaster risk reduction issues within the context of the Hyogo
Framework. The result of the on-line dialogue will constitute
the basis for guidelines to support the progress reporting, priority
setting and development of indicators at the national level to
monitor disaster risk reduction accomplishments.
The Inter-Agency Task Force on Disaster Reduction of the International
Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) discussed and agreed upon
strategic directions of how to assist countries and stakeholders
in implementing the Hyogo Framework, possible indicators and progress
reporting in its eleventh session in May 2005. The ISDR secretariat
is organizing this on-line dialogue with partners in response to
the need to define generic indicators and guidance for progress
reporting. National platforms and managers, Task Force members
as well as NGOs, national societies of the Red Cross and Red Crescent
movement, project managers, UN agencies and programme officers
and other interested stakeholders are invited to take active part
in this discussion.
An invitation with instructions for subscription to the join the
on-line dialogue will be sent to you shortly with the specific
topics to be discussed, as well as the website address.
Please join!
ISDR secretariat |
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